What Is Driving Slowing Inflation?
Inflation came in cooler than expected in May. In fact, it’s down from January’s growth rate of 3.0% year over year to 2.4%. While stickier services components such as shelter have driven this decline, could the recent uptick in oil prices and higher tariffs pose headwinds?
3 mins Reading time
Published on 17 June 2025
While we expected inflation to slow, it is encouraging to see the stickier components of services and shelter inflation driving the decline.
Led by services, the disinflation trend has been notable, with prices declining from a growth rate of 3.0% from a year ago in January to 2.4% in May. At 3.9% year over year, shelter inflation is the lowest it has been since November 2021, while core services at 2.9% is the lowest in more than four years.
However, could tariff-related price hikes and the recent increase in oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East hamper the downward path of inflation? We believe the impact of tariffs will amount to a one-time price adjustment as opposed to a long-term trend. Despite the roughly $17 increase in the price of oil since early May to $74 a barrel, it is only up 0.4% from a year ago. If there are no significant supply disruptions or if tensions de-escalate, the additional impact to energy prices or overall inflation should be limited. While the disinflation trend may slow from here, we maintain our year-end inflation forecast of 2.5-3.5%.
756588 Exp : 17 June 2026
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE
Although companies benefiting most directly from AI-related capital spending are the main drivers of higher earnings, strength is no longer confined to that group. Earnings across the broader market remain solid and are expected to grow more than 10% this year and next, suggesting the risk of concentrated market leadership may not be founded.
After sluggish job growth in 2025, investors are looking for signs that the labor market may be stabilizing. With consumer spending driving 70% of economic activity, an improving labor market is essential to sustaining economic growth.
Global equities have risen an annualized 11% since 2020 despite repeated shocks, as resilient growth and earnings have helped markets recover from periods of volatility. While the U.S.-Iran conflict poses near-term inflation and growth risks, markets remain constructive as earnings expectations continue to improve.
Rising earnings estimates continue to support equities despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With profit growth broadening across S&P 500 industries, resilient corporate earnings underpin our constructive outlook for the stock market.
