Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
false
true
Gathering data

Disclaimer Not Available
Chart of the week

The global economy is holding up

This past year was rife with risks to the global economy: policy changes, tariff uncertainty and more. Yet, the global economy held up as manufacturing and services activity strengthened across the world. We see an opportunity for U.S. investors to diversify geographically.


The global economy remained resilient this past year during a time of pronounced policy and tariff uncertainty, as well as geopolitical tensions. Yet, fiscal support, monetary easing and strong capital expenditures helped economies deliver positive growth.

A key measure of economic conditions, the Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a weighted average of the global manufacturing and services PMIs, provides a snapshot of overall worldwide economic health. A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50 suggests a contraction. This metric is at its highest since August 2024 and underpins our positive outlook for global growth as we head into 2026.

A strong global economy is important to investors because increased economic activity leads to higher corporate profits, boosting stock prices.  It is one of the reasons we maintain a constructive view on equities and why diversification across regions remains important. 

In a real regime shift?

Higher inflation has been a dominant theme of the current decade. In addition to price shocks, it is being shaped by secular investment trends in infrastructure, defense spending, onshoring and the ongoing AI buildout. These structural changes reinforce the case for looking beyond traditional 60/40 portfolios to include real assets as a source of diversification and return potential in portfolios.

02 September | English

Getting real with real assets

Inflation appears to have transitioned from its pre-Covid average of 2% to a stickier point closer to 3%, and we do not expect a near-term return to prior levels. In this environment, we believe real assets, such as commodities, infrastructure and REITs, can provide inflation protection, diversification and return potential.

25 August | English

Not in a bubble

As the S&P 500 approaches all-time highs, there are renewed concerns among investors about elevated valuations. However, historically strong profitability and expected earnings growth appear to support current pricing. In addition, the current S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is roughly equal to the average since Covid. As a result, we do not view U.S. equities as being in bubble territory and we remain constructive on the asset class.

18 August | English

Is the market rally broadening?

Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, are up over 13% through early August. The solid gains have been fueled by a resilient economy, steady consumer spending, optimism around artificial intelligence and better-than-expected earnings growth. Still, some investors worry the advance may be too concentrated in technology and that AI-capex monetization may fall short of expectations. A closer look suggests that it is not just tech moving the market higher.

11 August | English