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Chart of the week

The global economy is holding up

This past year was rife with risks to the global economy: policy changes, tariff uncertainty and more. Yet, the global economy held up as manufacturing and services activity strengthened across the world. We see an opportunity for U.S. investors to diversify geographically.


The global economy remained resilient this past year during a time of pronounced policy and tariff uncertainty, as well as geopolitical tensions. Yet, fiscal support, monetary easing and strong capital expenditures helped economies deliver positive growth.

A key measure of economic conditions, the Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a weighted average of the global manufacturing and services PMIs, provides a snapshot of overall worldwide economic health. A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50 suggests a contraction. This metric is at its highest since August 2024 and underpins our positive outlook for global growth as we head into 2026.

A strong global economy is important to investors because increased economic activity leads to higher corporate profits, boosting stock prices.  It is one of the reasons we maintain a constructive view on equities and why diversification across regions remains important. 

A broader foundation for earnings growth

Although companies benefiting most directly from AI-related capital spending are the main drivers of higher earnings, strength is no longer confined to that group. Earnings across the broader market remain solid and are expected to grow more than 10% this year and next, suggesting the risk of concentrated market leadership may not be founded.

02 June | English

Is the job market stabilizing?

After sluggish job growth in 2025, investors are looking for signs that the labor market may be stabilizing. With consumer spending driving 70% of economic activity, an improving labor market is essential to sustaining economic growth.

19 May | English

Will markets remain resilient?

Global equities have risen an annualized 11% since 2020 despite repeated shocks, as resilient growth and earnings have helped markets recover from periods of volatility. While the U.S.-Iran conflict poses near-term inflation and growth risks, markets remain constructive as earnings expectations continue to improve.

12 May | English

Earnings breadth still improving

Rising earnings estimates continue to support equities despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With profit growth broadening across S&P 500 industries, resilient corporate earnings underpin our constructive outlook for the stock market.

05 May | English