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Chart of the week

Global momentum in manufacturing

April PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) point to a meaningful improvement in global manufacturing momentum, with the U.S., Eurozone and Japan all posting stronger-than-expected and firmly expansionary results. The breadth of the rebound suggests improving global demand, supporting a constructive outlook for growth despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.


In April, the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 54.0, its highest level in four years and a firmly expansionary reading. The PMI tracks changes in business conditions across the manufacturing sector, making it a useful gauge of the sector’s overall health and direction. Because purchasing managers tend to see shifts in supply, demand and production plans early, the index is considered a leading indicator of economic activity.

However, the improvement was not confined to the U.S. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI also rose more than expected to 52.2, its strongest reading since May 2022. Japan’s manufacturing PMI likewise advanced to 54.9, the highest level since January 2022. Taken together, these readings suggest that manufacturing activity is strengthening across several major economies at the same time.

That breadth matters. Manufacturing recoveries that occur simultaneously across regions tend to be more durable because they reflect not just local factors, but improving global demand. We view the latest PMI data as constructive. These readings suggest that, despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, momentum in the goods-producing side of these economies is building rather than fading.

Can the bull run in corporate margins continue?

Higher inflation and elevated interest rates typically weigh on corporate profitability, yet corporate margins continue to climb to record highs. While that strength is evident both in the U.S. and abroad, U.S. outperformance versus Europe is now the widest on record. Stronger margins have helped contribute to better-than-expected earnings and reinforce U.S. equity leadership. The question now is whether that strength can persist?

20 October | English

Higher yields, but lower sensitivity

Higher interest rates have become a frequently cited risk to corporate earnings and the economy. The conventional thinking is straightforward: when borrowing costs rise, companies face higher interest expenses, profits come under pressure, and economic growth slows. While there is truth to that relationship, the current cycle may differ from investors’ expectations.

13 October | English

Is AI productivity hiding in the data?

Both the dot-com era and the rise of artificial intelligence suggest that early productivity data can understate the actual economic impact of transformative technologies. In the case of the internet, later revisions to productivity gains surpassed early estimates. The same may prove true for AI, implying stronger support for growth.

06 October | English

History of stocks after the Fed hikes

History of stocks after the fed hikes

Sticky inflation and resilient growth have revived monetary tightening, increasing the risk of higher-for-longer rates and near-term volatility. We continue to believe economic resilience and strong corporate profits should continue to provide a favorable backdrop for stocks, and would use periods of market weakness to add selectively to equities. Additionally, owning real assets can help hedge against inflation.

22 September | English