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Chart of the week

Don’t fear investing at new highs

The S&P 500 recently hit another all-time high. Is it therefore time to exercise more caution? Not in our view. We see the potential for further upside, and history is on our side.

It has certainly been a volatile first half of the year for equity markets with uncertainty around tariffs and the administration’s other policies weighing on investor sentiment.  From February 19 to April 8, the S&P 500 fell a notable 19%, skimming the surface of bear market territory. However, since then the index has risen 26% to a new all-time high on July 3.

While some investors may not feel comfortable buying when markets are at new highs, history shows there is little difference between future returns following a new all-time high and future returns following any other day when the market has not registered a new high. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered strong returns in the forward 1-, 3- and 5-year periods from a new all-time high.  The reason is the day of an all-time high is just like any other trading day, and investors are best served by viewing them all through the same lens.

Don’t let fear of all-time highs keep you on the sidelines or you’re bound to miss out.  Rather, stay invested and diversified and maintain a long-term perspective. That’s the most effective way to build wealth.

A broader foundation for earnings growth

Although companies benefiting most directly from AI-related capital spending are the main drivers of higher earnings, strength is no longer confined to that group. Earnings across the broader market remain solid and are expected to grow more than 10% this year and next, suggesting the risk of concentrated market leadership may not be founded.

02 June | English

Is the job market stabilizing?

After sluggish job growth in 2025, investors are looking for signs that the labor market may be stabilizing. With consumer spending driving 70% of economic activity, an improving labor market is essential to sustaining economic growth.

19 May | English

Will markets remain resilient?

Global equities have risen an annualized 11% since 2020 despite repeated shocks, as resilient growth and earnings have helped markets recover from periods of volatility. While the U.S.-Iran conflict poses near-term inflation and growth risks, markets remain constructive as earnings expectations continue to improve.

12 May | English

Earnings breadth still improving

Rising earnings estimates continue to support equities despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With profit growth broadening across S&P 500 industries, resilient corporate earnings underpin our constructive outlook for the stock market.

05 May | English