Don’t fear investing at new highs
The S&P 500 recently hit another all-time high. Is it therefore time to exercise more caution? Not in our view. We see the potential for further upside, and history is on our side.
It has certainly been a volatile first half of the year for equity markets with uncertainty around tariffs and the administration’s other policies weighing on investor sentiment. From February 19 to April 8, the S&P 500 fell a notable 19%, skimming the surface of bear market territory. However, since then the index has risen 26% to a new all-time high on July 3.
While some investors may not feel comfortable buying when markets are at new highs, history shows there is little difference between future returns following a new all-time high and future returns following any other day when the market has not registered a new high. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered strong returns in the forward 1-, 3- and 5-year periods from a new all-time high. The reason is the day of an all-time high is just like any other trading day, and investors are best served by viewing them all through the same lens.
Don’t let fear of all-time highs keep you on the sidelines or you’re bound to miss out. Rather, stay invested and diversified and maintain a long-term perspective. That’s the most effective way to build wealth.
765125 Exp : 08 July 2026
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE
Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described a shift in the balance of employment and inflation risks, and the market rallied on the news. For us, nothing has changed. We have been closely monitoring the labor market and indicators of inflation, and we continue to expect two rate cuts this year.
Second quarter earnings season is winding down. Nearly all companies have reported, and the majority beat expectations as margin estimates continue to rise.
Second quarter earnings season is winding down, but earnings are up, and better than expected. Despite some potentially concerning signals from the real economy, including muted job gains, and possible seasonal volatility, we remain constructive on equities. A positive second quarter earnings season strengthens our conviction.
Last week the market received mixed messages about the condition of the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls came in lower than expected, and the previous two months of data were revised sharply lower. Yet initial jobless claims were also lower, and the unemployment rate remains in range. We believe the U.S. economy can still deliver modest growth this year.