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Chart of the week

S&P 500 Returns After All-Time Highs

The S&P 500 recently hit a new all-time high after a notable year of peaks in 2025. Is now the time for caution? History tells us attractive performance often follows record highs.


Last week, the S&P 500 set a record closing high that neared the still unbroached 7,000 level, after reaching a notable record of 39 all-time highs throughout 2025. Last year’s performance reflects the fifth most all-time highs in a year since 2000 and the 15th most in the entire history of the index.

However, when markets reach new highs, some investors become overly cautious and conclude that the market has hit a ceiling. It’s therefore important to recognize that historically, forward returns after new all-time highs are higher on average than those following other days.

This is a key reason why we advise investors to stay invested at all times, including now. Even when faced with headlines on matters such as geopolitics, the labor market and artificial intelligence capital expenditures, looking past the noise and keeping a long-term perspective is the best way to build wealth.

Job market hanging in there

Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.

06 April | English

Markets since Iran conflict

Markets are reacting to the Middle East conflict with sharp moves across asset classes, signaling broad risk repricing and shifting safe‑haven behavior. While volatility is elevated, fundamentals like earnings growth continue to support our constructive outlook.

31 March | English

Signals from spreads

Credit spreads have risen yet remain historically low, reinforcing our view that the oil shock is likely temporary — not a driver of long-term growth concerns.

23 March | English

Dollar strength: what does it mean for markets?

Geopolitical tensions have lifted oil prices, sent U.S. stocks slightly lower and driven flows into the safety of the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened versus peers. While a weaker dollar previously supported international equity outperformance, dollar stabilization now suggests that tailwind is fading, underscoring the importance of diversification across regions and asset classes.

17 March | English