Led by tech, U.S. outperforming since mid-April
After years of outperformance, the U.S. underperformed other regions during the first quarter. While the debate over whether U.S. exceptionalism can persist continues, the U.S. has resumed its leadership since mid-April - led by the technology sector.
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Published on 14 July 2025
It has certainly been a volatile first half of the year for equity markets with uncertainty around tariffs and the administration’s other policies weighing on investor sentiment. From February 19 to April 8, the S&P 500 fell a notable 19%, skimming the surface of bear market territory. However, since then the index has risen 26% to a new all-time high on July 3.
While some investors may not feel comfortable buying when markets are at new highs, history shows there is little difference between future returns following a new all-time high and future returns following any other day when the market has not registered a new high. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered strong returns in the forward 1-, 3- and 5-year periods from a new all-time high. The reason is the day of an all-time high is just like any other trading day, and investors are best served by viewing them all through the same lens.
Don’t let fear of all-time highs keep you on the sidelines or you’re bound to miss out. Rather, stay invested and diversified and maintain a long-term perspective. That’s the most effective way to build wealth.
769753 Exp : 14 July 2026
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Technology valuations have meaningfully declined over the past year, but the sector continues to stand out for its strong earnings growth and relative resilience. While near-term uncertainty remains, tech still appears well positioned as a key driver of broader market growth.
Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.
Markets are reacting to the Middle East conflict with sharp moves across asset classes, signaling broad risk repricing and shifting safe‑haven behavior. While volatility is elevated, fundamentals like earnings growth continue to support our constructive outlook.
