6 FOR 2026
Essential Questions for Investors
In our annual outlook, investment and market leaders across BNY
tackle six key questions we believe will define the year ahead.
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2026 Q1 MACRO OUTLOOK
Vantage Point:
Rates, Rules and Reality
Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Institute.
Article |
Fixed Income
With the S&P 500® hitting new highs, investors question if fundamentals or hype is fueling the rally. Despite uncertainty, the S&P 500 has delivered strong performance year to date. Its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio now sits at 22x above the nearly 17x long-term average. To some, that screams “overvalued,” but context matters.
Report |
Macroeconomic
The BNY Investment Institute’s base case for the global economy this quarter is Recovery (40% probability), followed by Expansion (30% probability) and Slowdown (25% probability). Read the latest issue of Vantage Point, the team's quarterly economic analysis, for more.
Chart of the week |
Macroeconomic
Tech stocks have outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 for several years, and while we expect earnings growth among these companies to continue in 2026, we see another encouraging trend emerging. Earnings across the rest of the market are on an upward path too — and are set to contribute more to earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index in 2026 than the Magnificent 7.
Chart of the week |
Macroeconomic
Industrial production is a proxy for the level of manufacturing in the economy, and last week’s report showed the highest growth rate in three years. Not only is this positive for the manufacturing sector and those companies tied to it, but it is also an indication that a recession may be unlikely in the near term.
The value of investments can fall. Investors may not get back the amount invested.
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