INSIGHTS

Despite persistent concerns that sticky inflation would erode purchasing power and drag consumer spending lower, the May retail sales data tells a different story. Spending is up not just in dollar terms, but in quantity, highlighting continued consumer resilience.

Why inflation may stay higher for longer, and what fixed income investors can do about it.

Tension in the Middle East is thrusting energy security to the forefront of sovereign risk, alongside growth and debt. We examine the fault lines in global energy, food and water systems — and the potential implications for sovereigns and companies.

Inflation has jumped since the Strait of Hormuz closed, squeezing consumers through higher gas and utility bills and pressuring businesses with higher freight and operating costs. Yet, longer-term inflation expectations remain contained, suggesting this looks more like a temporary energy shock than a lasting inflation upswing.

AI investment enthusiasm is rising, but returns will vary widely. Long-term value is more likely where practical, commercially viable use cases are already beginning to emerge, says Walter Scott’s George Dent.

Semiconductor sector volatility remains high as investors weigh surging memory growth against questions over durability and valuation. Walter Scott’s Murdo MacLean breaks down what’s going on.

Walter Scott’s John Rae assesses outsourced drugs manufacturer Lonza’s role in the healthcare ecosystem.

Walter Scott’s John Rae outlines why the long-term case for food company Compass Group remains strong despite recent AI-driven market fears.

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group.

The U.S.’ extraction of President Maduro from Caracas on January 4 could alter the trajectory of geopolitics in the Americas.

BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today.