News & Insights

Monthly Checkpoints

November 19, 2025

Time to Read: 7 mins

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

Clear visualization and data-driven insights make it easy to grasp complex concepts, empowering investors to make more informed decisions. Whether you’re navigating volatile markets or planning for long-term growth, Checkpoints serves as an essential tool for staying ahead in an ever-changing financial environment. Gain in-depth perspective and greater clarity on key drivers and potential scenarios framing the financial landscape in this thoughtful outlook from the BNY Investment Institute.

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BABR-844992-2025-11-24

Report | Macroeconomic

Vantage Point: Rates, Rules and Reality Q1 2026

The BNY Investment Institute’s base case for the global economy this quarter is Recovery (40% probability), followed by Expansion (30% probability) and Slowdown (25% probability). Read the latest issue of Vantage Point, the team's quarterly economic analysis, for more.

Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Are earnings broadening beyond the magnificent 7?

Tech stocks have outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 for several years, and while we expect earnings growth among these companies to continue in 2026, we see another encouraging trend emerging. Earnings across the rest of the market are on an upward path too — and are set to contribute more to earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index in 2026 than the Magnificent 7.

Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Positive signals from industrial production?

Industrial production is a proxy for the level of manufacturing in the economy, and last week’s report showed the highest growth rate in three years. Not only is this positive for the manufacturing sector and those companies tied to it, but it is also an indication that a recession may be unlikely in the near term.

Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Healthy correction?

After climbing 17% year to date through late October, the S&P 500 declined 5% through November 20. We believe the market was due for a healthy correction. While further downside is possible, it would not concern us.