Global equities have risen an annualized 11% since 2020 despite repeated shocks, as resilient growth and earnings have helped markets recover from periods of volatility. While the U.S.-Iran conflict poses near-term inflation and growth risks, markets remain constructive as earnings expectations continue to improve.

The artificial intelligence investment narrative is becoming more nuanced. After several years of unprecedented capital spending by the world’s largest technology companies, investors are no longer debating AI’s theoretical potential.

The 2026 edition of our 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) offers our projections for asset class returns, volatilities and correlations over the coming decade.

Rising tensions in the Middle East have sent shockwaves through global energy markets, lifting oil and fuel costs and putting pressure on supply chains. While the U.S. is better insulated than in past oil shocks, it is not immune. Over the longer term, shifting global energy dynamics may create opportunities in U.S. energy infrastructure and natural gas.