INSIGHTS

Artificial intelligence (AI)-related funding needs are expected to support elevated credit issuance over the next few years. This may create potential investment opportunities but also material risks, reinforcing the importance of careful positioning and rigorous credit selection.

The S&P 500’s worst day and the best day that followed have something in common: you can’t predict either one. The table below underscores the risk of stepping out of the market during periods of heightened volatility. While selling after a sharp decline may feel like a way to avoid further losses, some of the market’s biggest gains have historically occurred soon after its biggest drops. For example, in 2020 and 2025, the S&P 500’s best day after the year’s worst came just six and three trading days later, respectively.

Change can be difficult to navigate, especially when its principal agent explicitly rejects prevailing norms. Less than five months into the job, Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh has put investors in that position, which makes charting the course of monetary policy complicated.

Higher inflation and elevated interest rates typically weigh on corporate profitability, yet corporate margins continue to climb to record highs. While that strength is evident both in the U.S. and abroad, U.S. outperformance versus Europe is now the widest on record. Stronger margins have helped contribute to better-than-expected earnings and reinforce U.S. equity leadership. The question now is whether that strength can persist?

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

The U.S.’ extraction of President Maduro from Caracas on January 4 could alter the trajectory of geopolitics in the Americas.

BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today.