Tension in the Middle East is thrusting energy security to the forefront of sovereign risk, alongside growth and debt. We examine the fault lines in global energy, food and water systems — and the potential implications for sovereigns and companies.

Inflation has jumped since the Strait of Hormuz closed, squeezing consumers through higher gas and utility bills and pressuring businesses with higher freight and operating costs. Yet, longer-term inflation expectations remain contained, suggesting this looks more like a temporary energy shock than a lasting inflation upswing.

May’s jobs report showed a labor market that is improving, with payroll growth exceeding expectations and layoffs down sharply from last year. Steady hiring and fewer layoffs should continue to support consumer spending and U.S. economic growth.

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.