Newton Portfolio Manager and Quantitative Analyst Paul Byrne explains his path to investment management and the importance of multi-dimensional research against a backdrop of increasing concentration risks.
What initially sparked your interest in finance?
Certain analytical qualities are in my nature, and I’ve always had a fascination with the interplay of art and science in the field of finance, but my path to becoming a portfolio manager was not linear. I majored in maths at university, knowing that I had a natural aptitude for numbers but not knowing exactly how I would apply those skills once I graduated.
Early in my career, I spent a year at a pharmaceutical company, conducting statistical analysis on clinical trials. That experience honed my analytical skills, but it was my internship with an investment bank that ignited my career path because I was able to see firsthand the practical application of mathematical theories and their real-world outcomes. That was around 2008, which was a globally tumultuous time economically. After a rotation on the trading desk and in mergers and acquisitions, I took a year to play cricket in Australia while the world turned upside down before returning to my passion for investments.
Finance is constantly evolving and, unlike the pure theoretical world of mathematics and statistics, it’s a living breathing field where the pace of change matches the growth of your knowledge. There’s always something new to learn and be challenged by - that blend of intellectual and practical applications keeps me engaged every day.
What were the key turning points in your journey to becoming a portfolio manager?
My career in finance has been shaped by several pivotal moments that have deepened my expertise in alignment with the industry’s needs. One of the most defining points was my immersion in risk management. I was fortunate to develop an understanding across styles and strategies to help me build a toolkit for risk across various investment approaches.
Another critical milestone was earning my Certificate in Quantitative Finance (CQF), which enables me to become a more holistic manager. I pursued the CQF as a complement to the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) certificate to build a balanced foundation. The combination of fundamental knowledge and technical expertise has empowered me to anticipate challenges, see around corners and develop a multi-dimensional research framework with my team at Newton, which aligns seamlessly with the firm’s investment philosophy.
How has your experience as a risk manager and quantitative analyst shaped your investment philosophy?
My philosophy as a risk manager and quant analyst is rooted in a structured, analytical and logical foundations shaped by my diverse experiences. My background in investment risk taught me to blend precision with adaptability, while my foundation in statics and mathematics informs the quantitative applications to real-world finance. That multi-dimensional perspective backed by a CQF and CFA helps me identify and anticipate risks and opportunities for robust client outcomes.
How do you define success for the volatility managed portfolios in the FutureLegacy range?
Success for the suite of FutureLegacy products means delivering consistent, risk-targeted returns within clients’ risk profiles. They are designed specifically for both accumulation and decumulation phases - building wealth or funding retirement.
Consistency means reliably delivering on our stated objectives. In this market of unprecedented uncertainty, that means relying upon our repeatable, multi-dimensional process - combining thematic insights, bottom-up fundamentals, quantitative analysis, and investigative research to actively manage risk within targeted volatility bands.
Amid regulatory pressures that advisers are facing, we emphasize transparency and resilience, for constructing a fundamentally diversified portfolio, built for the future, without hidden surprises, and tailored for long-term financial legacies.
How has the investment environment changes and what risks are most prevalent today compared with 5 or 10 years ago?
Market structures have changed. Post Global Financial Crisis, we saw 10 years of cheap money and increased globalisation. That has reversed. Deglobalisation, the rise in fiscal deficits, and surge in innovation are all accelerating, reshaping capital flows and making event-driven volatility even harder to predict.
The last few years have also seen a dramatic shift in concentration risks. Five years ago, the top 10 holdings in the MSCI World Index accounted for around 15% of the index’s weight, reflecting a more balanced spread. By September 2025, this has climbed to a staggering 25%, dominated by U.S. mega-cap technology names. That surge means that less than 1% of the index’s nearly 1,500 constituents drive a quarter of its performance.
This level of concentration risk, geopolitical and trade uncertainty, and market volatility demands forward-looking, dynamic and active management that can adjust portfolio risk for a future state rather than relying upon historical data, now more than ever in my career.
What are some hidden challenges facing investors reliant on retirement income or trying to build their FutureLegacy?
In addition to the heightened vulnerabilities passively managed portfolios face from increased concentration risks, one of the most significant hidden challenges facing investors building wealth or relying on retirement income is sequence-of-return risk, where early retirement withdrawals during downturns can erode portfolios quickly. Faster sector rotations and tight correlations make drawdowns more pronounced. We saw the consequences of this in 2022 when global bond markets declined over 15% as rates spiked, and high correlations meant some “low risk” strategies lagged the riskier ones, blindsiding conservative investors. Another hidden trap is inflation, with Bank of England rates at 4-5% eroding real returns.
Our solution is to stay consistent. We use risk models and tools, alongside our forward-looking view of the world to seek to dodge market turmoil and provide true diversification, which can tilt the balance of possibilities in our favour.
Who inspires you?
I’ve always drawn inspiration from cricketing captains and leaders. The best of them combine logic, resilience, and a structured methodology – qualities that help frame my thinking in my current role.
Captains operate against a background of uncertainty, balancing instinct with analysis and having to make decisions under pressure. I’ve always admired how they build process-driven environments that foster high-performance cultures, creating trust which allow others around them to perform at their best.
Figures throughout my life such as Steve Waugh, the Australian captain in the 1990s and Andrew Strauss who led England in the 2000s, particularly stand out. Each had different approaches, Waugh with an unshakeable belief in preparation — he believed that a consistent process leads to long-term performance, and Strauss with a calm analytical approach to building a framework based on analysis and accountability.
Throughout my career I’ve seen the same principles of preparation, teamwork, and decision-making continue to shape how I operate today.
The value of investments can fall. Investors may not get back the amount invested.
2789950 Exp: 30 April 2026
