INSIGHTS

The S&P 500’s history shows that despite recessions, wars, inflation, and corrections, the market’s long-term trajectory has remained upward. As the U.S. marks 250 years of resilience, the lesson for investors is clear: wealth is built through patience, discipline and staying invested.

U.S. policy uncertainty has remained elevated and consumer sentiment has weakened. Even so, the economy has stayed resilient, and because growth has held up better than sentiment and headlines suggest, we continue to forecast 2% U.S. growth in 2026, in line with trend.

Global equity income may merit attention as inflation lingers, valuations stay stretched and investors seek more resilient, less correlated equity exposure.

The rules of the market may have changed. How should multi-asset investors respond?

AI investment enthusiasm is rising, but returns will vary widely. Long-term value is more likely where practical, commercially viable use cases are already beginning to emerge, says Walter Scott’s George Dent.

Semiconductor sector volatility remains high as investors weigh surging memory growth against questions over durability and valuation. Walter Scott’s Murdo MacLean breaks down what’s going on.

Walter Scott’s John Rae assesses outsourced drugs manufacturer Lonza’s role in the healthcare ecosystem.

Walter Scott’s John Rae outlines why the long-term case for food company Compass Group remains strong despite recent AI-driven market fears.

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

The U.S.’ extraction of President Maduro from Caracas on January 4 could alter the trajectory of geopolitics in the Americas.

BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today.