2026 Q1 MACRO OUTLOOK
Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Institute.
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) announced in a 6-3 ruling that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded the powers of the president.
The AI revolution is not just a tech story; it is a capital allocation story, and private markets are at the center of an AI-driven capital expenditure boom.
Today’s global economy is defined by a significant imbalance — the U.S.’ large, persistent trade deficit. Expectations for continued U.S. economic strength, which keeps domestic consumption elevated and attracts foreign capital, is the primary reason for the imbalance.
In a short period, AI has advanced from novelty to an integral part of workflows, often matching or surpassing human performance in areas such as image classification, algorithm design, and data analysis.
The value of investments can fall. Investors may not get back the amount invested.
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