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2025 Q4 MACRO OUTLOOK
VANTAGE POINT: THREADING THE NEEDLE
Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Institute.
Top picks
The S&P 500 is up 14% year to date after gaining more than 20% annually over the past couple of years. Valuations are certainly elevated, but we believe the market is in a new world where higher multiples are normal rather than stretched.
Sino-U.S. disagreements on export controls over technology and critical minerals are unlikely to morph into a full-blown trade conflict.
Productivity, or output per hour worked, is a key driver of long-term economic growth. Now, after years of stagnation, productivity is on the rise again, a positive sign for future growth.
Fixed income has long been regarded as a tool for capital preservation, liability hedging and predictable income streams. But in an era of elevated absolute yields and steeper yield curves, BNY Investments believes the asset class merits a fresh look. In a new report, BNY Investments argues fixed income is not just for defence, but also a genuine engine of long-term capital growth.