EINBLICKE

Resilient economic growth, sticky inflation driven by higher energy prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty are complicating the path back to central-bank price targets. We believe policymakers are likely to adopt a tightening bias but remain data dependent.

Supply shocks may no longer be a temporary disruption. As they become more frequent and entrenched, the risk of second-round effects, where higher costs spill over into broader inflation, is rising. Central banks may need to respond differently.

Systematic, cost-aware tail-risk hedging may support portfolio downside protection while preserving strategic flexibility in volatile markets.

Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields are in the spotlight following recent Treasury intervention. In our view, the recent rise in yields reflects underlying supply and demand dynamics, rather than concerns about U.S. solvency. Meanwhile, recent market repricing may create opportunities for active investors, especially at the front end of the curve.

AI investment enthusiasm is rising, but returns will vary widely. Long-term value is more likely where practical, commercially viable use cases are already beginning to emerge, says Walter Scott’s George Dent.

Semiconductor sector volatility remains high as investors weigh surging memory growth against questions over durability and valuation. Walter Scott’s Murdo MacLean breaks down what’s going on.

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

The U.S.’ extraction of President Maduro from Caracas on January 4 could alter the trajectory of geopolitics in the Americas.

BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today.