EINBLICKE

Inflation has jumped since the Strait of Hormuz closed, squeezing consumers through higher gas and utility bills and pressuring businesses with higher freight and operating costs. Yet, longer-term inflation expectations remain contained, suggesting this looks more like a temporary energy shock than a lasting inflation upswing.

May’s jobs report showed a labor market that is improving, with payroll growth exceeding expectations and layoffs down sharply from last year. Steady hiring and fewer layoffs should continue to support consumer spending and U.S. economic growth.

A surge in energy prices pushed the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading above forecasts, reinforcing the case that inflation could remain higher for longer. Higher energy prices have also increased market volatility and uncertainty around the path of interest rates.

Although companies benefiting most directly from AI-related capital spending are the main drivers of higher earnings, strength is no longer confined to that group. Earnings across the broader market remain solid and are expected to grow more than 10% this year and next, suggesting the risk of concentrated market leadership may not be founded.

Walter Scott’s John Rae assesses outsourced drugs manufacturer Lonza’s role in the healthcare ecosystem.

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group.

The U.S.’ extraction of President Maduro from Caracas on January 4 could alter the trajectory of geopolitics in the Americas.

BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today.

Watch a quarterly Fund update with April LaRusse: Head of Fixed Income Specialists at Insight Investment.