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S&P 500 Returns After All-Time Highs

S&P 500 Returns After All-Time Highs

The S&P 500 recently hit a new all-time high after a notable year of peaks in 2025. Is now the time for caution? History tells us attractive performance often follows record highs.  


Last week, the S&P 500 set a record closing high that neared the still unbroached 7,000 level, after reaching a notable record of 39 all-time highs throughout 2025. Last year’s performance reflects the fifth most all-time highs in a year since 2000 and the 15th most in the entire history of the index.

However, when markets reach new highs, some investors become overly cautious and conclude that the market has hit a ceiling. It’s therefore important to recognize that historically, forward returns after new all-time highs are higher on average than those following other days.

This is a key reason why we advise investors to stay invested at all times, including now. Even when faced with headlines on matters such as geopolitics, the labor market and artificial intelligence capital expenditures, looking past the noise and keeping a long-term perspective is the best way to build wealth.

VERWANDTE THEMEN
Will markets remain resilient?
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Global equities have risen an annualized 11% since 2020 despite repeated shocks, as resilient growth and earnings have helped markets recover from periods of volatility. While the U.S.-Iran conflict poses near-term inflation and growth risks, markets remain constructive as earnings expectations continue to improve.

Earnings breadth still improving
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Rising earnings estimates continue to support equities despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With profit growth broadening across S&P 500 industries, resilient corporate earnings underpin our constructive outlook for the stock market.

Global momentum in manufacturing
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

April PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) point to a meaningful improvement in global manufacturing momentum, with the U.S., Eurozone and Japan all posting stronger-than-expected and firmly expansionary results. The breadth of the rebound suggests improving global demand, supporting a constructive outlook for growth despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Tracking the margin uptrend
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Rising margin expectations continue to support equities, underscoring the resilience of corporate profitability in the face of last year’s tariffs and this year’s Middle East war. The U.S. remains especially strong compared to peers, though first quarter earnings will be an important test.

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