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Is AI productivity hiding in the data?

October 6, 2026

Time to Read: 3 mins

Both the dot-com era and the rise of artificial intelligence suggest that early productivity data can understate the actual economic impact of transformative technologies. In the case of the internet, later revisions to productivity gains surpassed early estimates. The same may prove true for AI, implying stronger support for growth.

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Despite the dot-com era equity sell-off between 2000-2002, underlying investments in digital infrastructure proved extremely impactful. They laid the groundwork for productivity gains and permanently changed how companies operate. Artificial intelligence appears to be following a similar path today, emerging as a transformative technology reshaping how businesses and consumers function.

Notably, early estimates of productivity growth during the internet buildout understated its eventual impact, and later data revisions revealed gains that were stronger than initially forecast. A similar pattern may now be emerging with AI, with upward revisions on track to surpass the internet boom. This means the effects of AI on productivity could be underestimated, which would be positive for future growth.

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