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2026 Q1 MACRO OUTLOOK

Vantage Point:
Rates, Rules and Reality

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Institute.

Vantage Point

Top picks

Global leading indicator turning higher
Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Headline volatility persists and yet the global growth outlook continues to improve. We examined a leading indicator, and why there is good cause to diversify equity holdings if you haven’t already.

A cyclical rotation?
Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Stronger growth expectations are driving a global rotation out of growth-oriented and mega cap technology stocks, and into cyclical companies. At a time when geopolitical tensions and tariff discussions continue to simmer, we remind investors to stay invested despite the headline noise.

S&P 500 Returns After All-Time Highs
Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

The S&P 500 recently hit a new all-time high after a notable year of peaks in 2025. Is now the time for caution? History tells us attractive performance often follows record highs.

How are diverging rate paths shaping fixed income in the U.S, Europe and EM?
Article | Fixed Income

After years of synchronization, global monetary and fiscal policies are now moving in different directions, reflecting varying growth dynamics, inflation pressures and policy priorities.

The value of investments can fall. Investors may not get back the amount invested.


Investment Managers are appointed by BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (BNYMIM EMEA), BNY Mellon Fund Managers Limited (BNYMFM), BNY Mellon Fund Management (Luxembourg) S.A. (BNY MFML) or affiliated fund operating companies to undertake portfolio management activities in relation to contracts for products and services entered into by clients with BNYMIM EMEA, BNY MFML or the BNY Mellon funds.

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