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2025 Q4 MACRO OUTLOOK
VANTAGE POINT: THREADING THE NEEDLE
Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Institute.
Top picks
BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today.
Last week’s Consumer Price Index report, a widely used indicator of inflation in the U.S. economy, showed growth of 3% in September, which was above 2.9% in August but less than expected. Despite the modest increase, various categories have shown signs of stabilization. What does this mean for inflation going forward?
The S&P 500 is up 14% year to date after gaining more than 20% annually over the past couple of years. Valuations are certainly elevated, but we believe the market is in a new world where higher multiples are normal rather than stretched.
Sino-U.S. disagreements on export controls over technology and critical minerals are unlikely to morph into a full-blown trade conflict.