Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.
Over the last three months, average weekly initial jobless claims have stood at 212,000, near their lowest level in three years. Because initial jobless claims are also a leading economic indicator, these low levels suggest an economy where economic growth can remain positive.
Continuing jobless claims, which track the number of Americans already receiving unemployment benefits, are also at the lower end of their two-year range. Taken together with initial claims, these figures reinforce our view that the labor market remains resilient or good enough to continue to support positive economic growth.
