INSIGHTS

Change can be difficult to navigate, especially when its principal agent explicitly rejects prevailing norms. Less than five months into the job, Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh has put investors in that position, which makes charting the course of monetary policy complicated.

Higher inflation and elevated interest rates typically weigh on corporate profitability, yet corporate margins continue to climb to record highs. While that strength is evident both in the U.S. and abroad, U.S. outperformance versus Europe is now the widest on record. Stronger margins have helped contribute to better-than-expected earnings and reinforce U.S. equity leadership. The question now is whether that strength can persist?

On the face of it, Q3 2026 looked uneventful — market returns were relatively muted, and the headlines stayed fixed on bond yields, interest rates, and energy prices. But as Walter Scott's latest global update explains, there was plenty of movement beneath the surface.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is driving one of the largest investment cycles in decades. The companies building the infrastructure that underpins AI – from semiconductors and manufacturing equipment to cloud platforms and data centers – are attracting significant attention as organizations invest heavily to develop and deploy the technology.

Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

The U.S.’ extraction of President Maduro from Caracas on January 4 could alter the trajectory of geopolitics in the Americas.

BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today.