Time to Read: 7 mins
Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.
BABR-994077-2026-08-31 | GU-933 -28 February 2027
Supply shocks may no longer be a temporary disruption. As they become more frequent and entrenched, the risk of second-round effects, where higher costs spill over into broader inflation, is rising. Central banks may need to respond differently.
Systematic, cost-aware tail-risk hedging may support portfolio downside protection while preserving strategic flexibility in volatile markets.
Global earnings growth has been strong this year, led by the U.S. and reinforced by improving profit growth across Europe, Japan and other major markets. While volatility may rise in the near term, above-average earnings and broader global participation remain supportive of global equities.
Higher inflation has been a dominant theme of the current decade. In addition to price shocks, it is being shaped by secular investment trends in infrastructure, defense spending, onshoring and the ongoing AI buildout. These structural changes reinforce the case for looking beyond traditional 60/40 portfolios to include real assets as a source of diversification and return potential in portfolios.
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