3 equity market observations

April 1, 2026

Time to Read: 4:03 mins

Murdo MacLean shares Walter Scott’s perspective on three headwinds facing equity markets.

Key points:

Market volatility is being driven by three developments affecting equities.
First, the risk around private credit is rising and defaults are increasing, albeit from a low base.
Second, the Middle East conflict is disrupting oil, airlines, and supply chains. Markets appear relatively calm, but vigilance is key.
Third, AI advances like Anthropic’s Claude unsettled software in February but not all software companies are created equal and volatility often creates opportunity.

3195459 Exp: 3 July 2026

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Tracking the margin uptrend

Rising margin expectations continue to support equities, underscoring the resilience of corporate profitability in the face of last year’s tariffs and this year’s Middle East war. The U.S. remains especially strong compared to peers, though first quarter earnings will be an important test.

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Time to buy tech?

Technology valuations have meaningfully declined over the past year, but the sector continues to stand out for its strong earnings growth and relative resilience. While near-term uncertainty remains, tech still appears well positioned as a key driver of broader market growth.

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Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

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Job market hanging in there

Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.