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Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.

Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.

Volatility has picked up as the conflict in the Middle East enters its second month. Higher oil prices are increasing inflation uncertainty and raising questions about global growth.

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group.