Chart of the Week

Steady hiring, fewer layoffs

June 9, 2026

Time to Read: 3 mins

May’s jobs report showed a labor market that is improving, with payroll growth exceeding expectations and layoffs down sharply from last year. Steady hiring and fewer layoffs should continue to support consumer spending and U.S. economic growth.

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Last week’s jobs report showed that the U.S. labor market remains more resilient than expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, well above consensus expectations for 88,000. Upward revisions to the prior two months also suggest hiring momentum has been firmer than initially reported, reinforcing the view that labor demand has held up despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

So far, the labor market is better than last year. Year-to-date payroll gains total 569,000, compared with 182,000 over the same period in 2025. Layoffs have also moved in a more constructive direction. Year-to-date layoffs stand at 398,000, down sharply from 696,000 at this point last year.

Looking ahead, job growth is likely to settle into a more moderate range due to aging demographics and lower immigration. Still, as long as hiring continues and layoffs remain contained, consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, should remain positive.

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A good outlook for global earnings

Global earnings growth has been strong this year, led by the U.S. and reinforced by improving profit growth across Europe, Japan and other major markets. While volatility may rise in the near term, above-average earnings and broader global participation remain supportive of global equities.

Chart of the Week | Macroeconomic

In a real regime shift?

Higher inflation has been a dominant theme of the current decade. In addition to price shocks, it is being shaped by secular investment trends in infrastructure, defense spending, onshoring and the ongoing AI buildout. These structural changes reinforce the case for looking beyond traditional 60/40 portfolios to include real assets as a source of diversification and return potential in portfolios.

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Getting real with real assets

Inflation appears to have transitioned from its pre-Covid average of 2% to a stickier point closer to 3%, and we do not expect a near-term return to prior levels. In this environment, we believe real assets, such as commodities, infrastructure and REITs, can provide inflation protection, diversification and return potential.

Chart of the Week | Macroeconomic

Is the market rally broadening?

Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, are up over 13% through early August. The solid gains have been fueled by a resilient economy, steady consumer spending, optimism around artificial intelligence and better-than-expected earnings growth. Still, some investors worry the advance may be too concentrated in technology and that AI-capex monetization may fall short of expectations. A closer look suggests that it is not just tech moving the market higher.