Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility Healthy Correction?
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Healthy correction?

Healthy correction?

After climbing 17% year to date through late October, the S&P 500 declined 5% through November 20. We believe the market was due for a healthy correction. While further downside is possible, it would not concern us.  


After reaching a new all-time high on October 28, the S&P 500 declined 5% through November 20, leading to concerns of a renewed correction. We believe the market was due for a healthy correction and while further volatility may persist, additional downside would not concern us.

History shows that markets don’t move in a straight line, and drawdowns are normal. Since 1946, the S&P 500 has experienced a median annual correction of 11%.

Additionally, we do not believe we’re heading for a bear market or imminent recession, and we see the latest decline as more technically driven rather than a change in fundamentals or a more negative outlook. In 2026, we expect economic growth near 2% and earnings growth to continue to broaden beyond the tech sector, which should support equity performance. Therefore, staying invested and weathering the downside is critical for capturing potential upside. 

VERWANDTE THEMEN
Earnings breadth still improving
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Rising earnings estimates continue to support equities despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With profit growth broadening across S&P 500 industries, resilient corporate earnings underpin our constructive outlook for the stock market.

Global momentum in manufacturing
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

April PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indices) point to a meaningful improvement in global manufacturing momentum, with the U.S., Eurozone and Japan all posting stronger-than-expected and firmly expansionary results. The breadth of the rebound suggests improving global demand, supporting a constructive outlook for growth despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Tracking the margin uptrend
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Rising margin expectations continue to support equities, underscoring the resilience of corporate profitability in the face of last year’s tariffs and this year’s Middle East war. The U.S. remains especially strong compared to peers, though first quarter earnings will be an important test.

 Time to buy tech?
Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Technology valuations have meaningfully declined over the past year, but the sector continues to stand out for its strong earnings growth and relative resilience. While near-term uncertainty remains, tech still appears well positioned as a key driver of broader market growth.

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