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As the delayed effects of past monetary and fiscal policy become more evident and the need for new policy takes hold, the BNY Investment Institute expects the coming quarters to challenge the resilience of economies and the durability of markets. Read more in the latest edition of our quarterly economic and asset allocation analysis, Vantage Point.
2527209 Exp: 30 September 2025
Uncertainty around tariffs, inflation and interest rates has been looming for months. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) left rates unchanged at its July meeting, to the surprise of market observers. So, the question remains — what’s the Fed’s next move? The BNY Investment Institute considers the factors influencing the central bank's path ahead.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s provision regarding the full expensing of capital expenditures is already having an impact on companies’ investment plans. We believe this a positive signal for economic growth.
Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described a shift in the balance of employment and inflation risks, and the market rallied on the news. For us, nothing has changed. We have been closely monitoring the labor market and indicators of inflation, and we continue to expect two rate cuts this year.
Second quarter earnings season is winding down. Nearly all companies have reported, and the majority beat expectations as margin estimates continue to rise.
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