Temps de lecture: 7 mins
Checkpoints is a comprehensive monthly chartbook highlighting major top-of-mind themes that could shape financial markets in the near term. In addition to the broader macroeconomic discussion, Checkpoints delivers detailed views on major asset classes, including global equities, fixed income and real assets.
BABR-958619-2026-06-29 | GU-894 - 31 December 2026
U.S. policy uncertainty has remained elevated and consumer sentiment has weakened. Even so, the economy has stayed resilient, and because growth has held up better than sentiment and headlines suggest, we continue to forecast 2% U.S. growth in 2026, in line with trend.
The rules of the market may have changed. How should multi-asset investors respond?
Despite persistent concerns that sticky inflation would erode purchasing power and drag consumer spending lower, the May retail sales data tells a different story. Spending is up not just in dollar terms, but in quantity, highlighting continued consumer resilience.
Inflation has jumped since the Strait of Hormuz closed, squeezing consumers through higher gas and utility bills and pressuring businesses with higher freight and operating costs. Yet, longer-term inflation expectations remain contained, suggesting this looks more like a temporary energy shock than a lasting inflation upswing.