Decoding semiconductor volatility

As the S&P 500 approaches all-time highs, there are renewed concerns among investors about elevated valuations. However, historically strong profitability and expected earnings growth appear to support current pricing. In addition, the current S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is roughly equal to the average since Covid. As a result, we do not view U.S. equities as being in bubble territory and we remain constructive on the asset class.

Leaders rotate in and out. No single fixed income sector consistently dominates performance over time, and strong performance in one sector rarely carries over from one year to the next. For example, emerging markets local debt and global bonds — two of 2024’s worst performers — rebounded strongly in 2025. Timing fixed income markets and predicting which sector will lead next is extremely difficult.

Market volatility is unsettling. When the market waters get rough, investors can be tempted to jump out to try to avoid short-term losses. But historically, some of the market’s biggest gains occur when volatility is highest, making them difficult to predict and easy to miss.

Stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, are up over 13% through early August. The solid gains have been fueled by a resilient economy, steady consumer spending, optimism around artificial intelligence and better-than-expected earnings growth. Still, some investors worry the advance may be too concentrated in technology and that AI-capex monetization may fall short of expectations. A closer look suggests that it is not just tech moving the market higher.