Rising earnings estimates continue to support equities despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With profit growth broadening across S&P 500 industries, resilient corporate earnings underpin our constructive outlook for the stock market.
Expectations for future earnings growth remain a key driver of equity market performance. That dynamic is especially visible today: rising earnings estimates have supported equities despite persistent concerns over the war in the Middle East and its potential effects on energy prices, inflation and global growth. Consensus forecasts now call for S&P 500 earnings to grow 20.6% in 2026, up from 14.3% before the conflict began — a meaningful upward revision that highlights companies’ profit resilience.
Earnings strength is becoming broader, with more industries expected to post stronger results. Notably, 88% of S&P 500 companies now have earnings estimates higher than their levels 12 months ago — the highest share in three years. That widening earnings breadth supports a more durable market backdrop.
In fact, earnings and interest rates are the main drivers of equity returns. With interest rates on hold, it’s corporate profitability across a wide range of industries that continues to support our constructive outlook for equities.
