S&P 500 returns after all-time highs

January 13, 2026

Time to Read: 3 mins

The S&P 500 recently hit a new all-time high after a notable year of peaks in 2025. Is now the time for caution? History tells us attractive performance often follows record highs.

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Last week, the S&P 500 set a record closing high that neared the still unbroached 7,000 level, after reaching a notable record of 39 all-time highs throughout 2025. Last year’s performance reflects the fifth most all-time highs in a year since 2000 and the 15th most in the entire history of the index.

However, when markets reach new highs, some investors become overly cautious and conclude that the market has hit a ceiling. It’s therefore important to recognize that historically, forward returns after new all-time highs are higher on average than those following other days.

This is a key reason why we advise investors to stay invested at all times, including now. Even when faced with headlines on matters such as geopolitics, the labor market and artificial intelligence capital expenditures, looking past the noise and keeping a long-term perspective is the best way to build wealth.

Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Markets since iran conflict

Markets are reacting to the Middle East conflict with sharp moves across asset classes, signaling broad risk repricing and shifting safe haven behavior. While volatility is elevated, fundamentals like earnings growth continue to support our constructive outlook.

Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Signals from spreads

Credit spreads have risen yet remain historically low, reinforcing our view that the oil shock is likely temporary — not a driver of long-term growth concerns.

Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Dollar strength: what does it mean for markets?

Geopolitical tensions have lifted oil prices, sent U.S. stocks slightly lower and driven flows into the safety of the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened versus peers. While a weaker dollar previously supported international equity outperformance, dollar stabilization now suggests that tailwind is fading, underscoring the importance of diversification across regions and asset classes.

Chart of the week | Macroeconomic

Returns after oil spikes

The Strait of Hormuz, which moves about 20% of global oil, has seen many ships that normally travel through it curtail their activity. Consequently, WTI oil was up over 36% in the five days after the oil supply shock began. Yet equities barely budged, signaling a temporary supply shock, not a larger crisis. Historically, after similar price spikes equities tend to move higher while oil prices decline — further evidence for avoiding emotion-driven investing.