Expanding into value

We expect market leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap tech in U.S. equity markets. For growth heavy portfolios, the narrowing gap between growth and value signals a potential need to add value investments to reduce concentration risk and improve diversification.

A Turning Point

Since November 2025, growth’s momentum has started to slow, and value has begun to outperform, suggesting a shift in market leadership after years of growth dominance. The recent decline in the growth-to-value ratio reinforces that this rotation into value may already be underway. In January alone, mega-cap tech, as represented by the Magnificent 7, was highly dispersed and no longer moving in lockstep, raising both volatility and return risk. For example, Meta advanced by more than 9% while Microsoft declined by 11% during this period. Given this backdrop, we believe it’s increasingly important to broaden exposure to value while being more selective within growth.
 

U.S. Growth vs Value

Un rapporto inferiore a 1,0 indica una sovraperformance del value; superiore a 1,0 indica una sovraperformance del growth

Fonte: BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group, Macrobond. Dati al 31 gennaio 2026

Magnifici 7 Performance Year-to-Date

Fonte: BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group, Macrobond. Dati al 31 gennaio 2026.

Momentum favorevole al value

Riteniamo che lo spostamento verso il value sia guidato dal miglioramento dei fondamentali nella classe di attivo large cap value. Osservando i margini di profitto, le società large-cap growth hanno registrato un calo di 2,5 punti percentuali negli ultimi sei mesi. Nel frattempo, le società large-cap value, come quelle del settore finanziario, sono passate da una crescita piatta a un +1,0% nello stesso periodo, segnalando un passaggio verso un momentum positivo.

Riteniamo che questa tendenza verso il value sia destinata a proseguire. Includere titoli value accanto ai titoli growth può aiutare gli investitori a gestire una rotazione persistente verso una leadership azionaria più ampia, rafforzando al tempo stesso la diversificazione e la resilienza dei rendimenti.
 

Variazione annuale del Margine di Profitto

Fonte: BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group, Macrobond. Dati al 31 gennaio 2026.

GLOSSARY

Growth stocks are companies that are expected to grow quickly; investors often pay higher prices relative to current profits.

Large-cap refers to companies with a large total market value (their share price multiplied by the number of shares). “Large-cap value” and “large cap growth” are style segments within this size group.

Magnificent 7 refers to the following seven stocks: Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft.

Market leadership is the group of stocks or sectors that are driving most of the gains in the stock market over a period of time.

Mega-cap tech refers to very large technology companies with extremely high market values (e.g., the largest, most well-known tech firms). These stocks have often dominated U.S. market performance in recent years.
Value stocks are companies that appear cheaper relative to fundamentals (like earnings or book value), often because they are out of favor or in mature industries.

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