Chart of the Week

Healthy correction?

November 25, 2025

Lesezeit: 3 mins

After climbing 17% year to date through late October, the S&P 500 declined 5% through November 20. We believe the market was due for a healthy correction. While further downside is possible, it would not concern us.

Vergrößern

After reaching a new all-time high on October 28, the S&P 500 declined 5% through November 20, leading to concerns of a renewed correction. We believe the market was due for a healthy correction and while further volatility may persist, additional downside would not concern us.

History shows that markets don’t move in a straight line, and drawdowns are normal. Since 1946, the S&P 500 has experienced a median annual correction of 11%.

Additionally, we do not believe we’re heading for a bear market or imminent recession, and we see the latest decline as more technically driven rather than a change in fundamentals or a more negative outlook. In 2026, we expect economic growth near 2% and earnings growth to continue to broaden beyond the tech sector, which should support equity performance. Therefore, staying invested and weathering the downside is critical for capturing potential upside.

Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Job market hanging in there

Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.

Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Markets since iran conflict

Markets are reacting to the Middle East conflict with sharp moves across asset classes, signaling broad risk repricing and shifting safe haven behavior. While volatility is elevated, fundamentals like earnings growth continue to support our constructive outlook.

Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Signals from spreads

Credit spreads have risen yet remain historically low, reinforcing our view that the oil shock is likely temporary — not a driver of long-term growth concerns.

Chart of the week | Makroökonomisch

Dollar strength: what does it mean for markets?

Geopolitical tensions have lifted oil prices, sent U.S. stocks slightly lower and driven flows into the safety of the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened versus peers. While a weaker dollar previously supported international equity outperformance, dollar stabilization now suggests that tailwind is fading, underscoring the importance of diversification across regions and asset classes.