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Inflation Is a Global Problem

Resilient economic growth, sticky inflation driven by higher energy prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty are complicating the path back to central-bank price targets. We believe policymakers are likely to adopt a tightening bias but remain data dependent.

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Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results.

 

Inflation has dominated headlines since Covid, amplified more recently by higher oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the conflict with Iran. It’s also not a problem unique to the U.S. Since the pandemic, inflation across many global economies has remained persistently above historical norms — highlighting the resilience of underlying cost dynamics.

This stickiness makes it more difficult for central banks to bring inflation back toward the widely targeted 2% level in the near term. As a result, policymakers are likely to remain highly data dependent, particularly as geopolitical uncertainty continues. We would not be surprised if the outlook for central bank policy around the world shifts toward a more restrictive stance, with the possibility of further tightening if inflation proves more persistent.

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Sticky inflation: Sticky Inflation is inflation that remains higher than desired and is slow to ease, particularly in areas such as services and housing where prices tend to change gradually. 

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MARK-1001697-2026-09-15