Metrics around longer-term labor market health continue to favor the U.S, versus other major regions. Compared to the Eurozone and China, domestic unemployment is 1-2% and 4.5-7% lower for youth unemployment. Moreover, in the next 10-15 years, the populations of Europe and China are on track to age faster than in the U.S.i
By 2040, old-age dependency ratios, a measure of the population above 65 years old compared to the working age population, are set to rise roughly 10% in the Eurozone, 20% in China and only 7% in the U.S. The key message here is that current unemployment rates and projected changes in demographics continue to shine brightest on the U.S.ii
So, is U.S. exceptionalism still alive? We believe so. The U.S. has been a leader in driving the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and applications. In our view, investing in the U.S. is, among other things, investing in the potential of AI, which has been propelling higher earnings for large cap technology companies as well as productivity gains and profit margin expansion for companies across all sectors.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Chart is for illustrative purposes and is not indicative of the past or future performance of any product.
iUnited Nations and Bloomberg, May 2025
iiUnited Nations and Bloomberg, May 2025
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