RECALCULATING
BNY's commitment to insight and perspectives comes to life through our investment and market leaders who gather quarterly to debate the key issues shaping markets today. We draw on the firm’s global reach and intellectual depth to produce forward-looking perspectives that help investors navigate complexity with confidence.
This quarter, we dissected how resilient growth, shifting rate expectations, and diverging global monetary policies are reshaping opportunities across credit and sovereign markets. In particular, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) recent rate cuts — seen more as insurance than stimulus — fueled debate on whether easing can extend the cycle without reigniting inflation.
We also looked at the global economy and how it continues to balance growth with policy recalibration. In the U.S., most of the uncertainty from tariffs has likely passed, but residual effects remain, partly offset by lower corporate tax rates. The Fed will follow the direction of travel signaled at its October meeting by easing policy further. Globally, policy easing is expected to support a reacceleration into 2026.
In markets, we expect corporate profitability to remain strong as companies continue to find success managing margins. The sustainability of the growth in artificial intelligence (AI) continues to be a central topic of discussion. We think cash flow strength in the tech sector sets this cycle apart from the dot-com era. Earnings growth is also broadening beyond big tech and rate relief should aid smaller, more levered companies.
Meanwhile, the housing market remains constrained, but lower rates should ease the imbalance and early signs of a rebound are becoming more visible. Still, with fiscal dynamics taking greater precedence and inflation likely to remain above target, return of capital — not just a return on capital — remains a central theme.
Through this report, we offer you a seat at our table where clarity comes from disciplined analysis and diverse perspectives. We offer insights across asset classes, regions and policy regimes, turning global complexity into actionable opportunity.
Eric Hundahl
BNY Investments Institute1
BNY Advisors
As of September 2025. 1 BNY investment institute consist of BNY Advisors' macroeconomic research, asset allocation, manager research and operational due diligence teams.
IN THE UNITED STATES: FOR GENERAL PUBLIC USE.
IN ALL OTHER JURISDICTIONS: FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS.
Disclaimer
The information contained herein reflects general views and is provided for informational purposes only. This material is not intended as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to adopt any investment strategy. It is intended for institutional and professional audiences and may not be relied upon by retail investors in jurisdictions other than the U.S.
Opinions and views expressed are subject to change without notice.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Issuing entities
This material is only for distribution in those countries and to those recipients listed, subject to the noted conditions and limitations: • United States: by BNY Mellon Securities Corporation (BNYSC), 240 Greenwich Street, New York, NY 10286. BNYSC, a registered broker-dealer and FINRA member, has entered into agreements to offer securities in the U.S. on behalf of certain BNY Investments firms. • Europe (excluding Switzerland): BNY Mellon Fund Management (Luxembourg) S.A., 2-4 Rue Eugène Ruppert L-2453 Luxembourg. • UK, Africa and Latin America (ex-Brazil): BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited, BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 1118580. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. • South Africa: BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited is an authorised financial services provider. • Switzerland: BNY Mellon Investments Switzerland GmbH, Bärengasse 29, CH-8001 Zürich, Switzerland. • Middle East: DIFC branch of The Bank of New York Mellon. Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. • South East Asia and South Asia: BNY Mellon Investment Management Singapore Pte. Limited Co. Reg. 201230427E. Regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. • Hong Kong: BNY Mellon Investment Management Hong Kong Limited. Regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. • Japan: BNY Mellon Investment Management Japan Limited. BNY Mellon Investment Management Japan Limited is a Financial Instruments Business Operator with license no 406 (Kinsho) at the Commissioner of Kanto Local Finance Bureau and is a Member of the Investment Trusts Association, Japan and Japan Investment Advisers Association and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. • Brazil: ARX Investimentos Ltda., Av. Borges de Medeiros, 633, 4th floor, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, CEP 22430-041. Authorized and regulated by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). • Canada: BNY Mellon Asset Management Canada Ltd. is registered in all provinces and territories of Canada as a Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer, and as a Commodity Trading Manager in Ontario. All issuing entities are subsidiaries of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.
BNY COMPANY INFORMATION
BNY Investments is the brand name for the investment management business of BNY and its investment firm affiliates worldwide. BNY is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and may also be used to reference the corporation as a whole and/or its various subsidiaries generally. • Mellon Investments Corporation (MIC) is a registered investment adviser and subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY). MIC is composed of two divisions; BNY Investments Mellon (Mellon), which specializes in index management, and BNY Investments Dreyfus (Dreyfus), which specializes in cash management and short duration strategies. • Insight Investment – Investment advisory services in North America are provided through two different investment advisers registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) using the brand Insight Investment: Insight North America LLC (INA) and Insight Investment International Limited (IIIL). The North American investment advisers are associated with other global investment managers that also (individually and collectively) use the corporate brand Insight. Insight is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. • Newton Investment Management – “Newton” and/or “Newton Investment Management” is a corporate brand which refers to the following group of affiliated companies: Newton Investment Management Limited (NIM), Newton Investment Management North America LLC (NIMNA) and Newton Investment Management Japan Limited (NIMJ). NIMNA was established in 2021, NIMJ was established in March 2023. NIM and NIMNA are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States of America as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Newton is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. • ARX is the brand used to describe the Brazilian investment capabilities of BNY Mellon ARX Investimentos Ltda. ARX is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. • Walter Scott & Partners Limited (Walter Scott) is an investment management firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. • Siguler Guff – The Bank of New York Mellon owns a 20% interest in Siguler Guff & Company, LP and certain related entities (including Siguler Guff Advisers LLC). • BNY Mellon Advisors, Inc. (BNY Advisors) is an investment adviser registered as such with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) pursuant to the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. BNY Advisors is a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.
No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright law.
NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE |
©2025 THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORPORATION
MARK-819816-2025-10-14
GU-729 - 31 October 2026
IM-ATTRECALCRTBRO-1125