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Recent jobless claims data point to a resilient U.S. labor market, with both initial and continuing claims remaining low and signaling that unemployment is still contained. Although job growth has softened and remains subdued, March’s job growth of 178,000, the highest since 2024, is encouraging. Our constructive outlook still holds despite continued uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East.

Volatility has picked up as the conflict in the Middle East enters its second month. Higher oil prices are increasing inflation uncertainty and raising questions about global growth.

Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group.

Markets are reacting to the Middle East conflict with sharp moves across asset classes, signaling broad risk repricing and shifting safe haven behavior. While volatility is elevated, fundamentals like earnings growth continue to support our constructive outlook.