Chart of the Week

Earnings breadth still improving

May 5, 2026

Lesezeit: 3 mins

Rising earnings estimates continue to support equities despite geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. With profit growth broadening across S&P 500 industries, resilient corporate earnings underpin our constructive outlook for the stock market.

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Expectations for future earnings growth remain a key driver of equity market performance. That dynamic is especially visible today: rising earnings estimates have supported equities despite persistent concerns over the war in the Middle East and its potential effects on energy prices, inflation and global growth. Consensus forecasts now call for S&P 500 earnings to grow 20.6% in 2026, up from 14.3% before the conflict began — a meaningful upward revision that highlights companies’ profit resilience.

Earnings strength is becoming broader, with more industries expected to post stronger results. Notably, 88% of S&P 500 companies now have earnings estimates higher than their levels 12 months ago — the highest share in three years. That widening earnings breadth supports a more durable market backdrop.

In fact, earnings and interest rates are the main drivers of equity returns. With interest rates on hold, it’s corporate profitability across a wide range of industries that continues to support our constructive outlook for equities.

Chart of the Week | Makroökonomisch

Resilience is a historical trend

The S&P 500’s history shows that despite recessions, wars, inflation, and corrections, the market’s long-term trajectory has remained upward. As the U.S. marks 250 years of resilience, the lesson for investors is clear: wealth is built through patience, discipline and staying invested.

Chart of the Week | Makroökonomisch

Resilient through uncertainty

U.S. policy uncertainty has remained elevated and consumer sentiment has weakened. Even so, the economy has stayed resilient, and because growth has held up better than sentiment and headlines suggest, we continue to forecast 2% U.S. growth in 2026, in line with trend.

Chart of the Week | Makroökonomisch

Getting real in retail

Despite persistent concerns that sticky inflation would erode purchasing power and drag consumer spending lower, the May retail sales data tells a different story. Spending is up not just in dollar terms, but in quantity, highlighting continued consumer resilience.

Chart of the Week | Makroökonomisch

Higher inflation, contained expectations

Inflation has jumped since the Strait of Hormuz closed, squeezing consumers through higher gas and utility bills and pressuring businesses with higher freight and operating costs. Yet, longer-term inflation expectations remain contained, suggesting this looks more like a temporary energy shock than a lasting inflation upswing.