Key Highlights

• U.S. Supreme Court expected to rule on the legality of tariffs.
• Chinese inflation hits near three-year highs in December.
• President Trump cancels a second attack on Venezuela, citing cooperation after prisoners released.

Chart of the Day

Robust flows continue into EM and DM metals and mining industry equities

^{Source: BNY}

Volatility in metals prices continues to dominate markets, but equity flows are currently reacting far more positively to the currency moves. For example, Peru is currently the strongest-performing equity market on a one-week and one-quarter basis across all of iFlow, and undoubtedly the current moves in silver markets are playing a role. Brazil and Chile are also comfortably net bought, which underscores the improvement in expectations for Latin America at the start of the year, notwithstanding recent developments. South Africa is facing some outflows, though we stress this is after a very strong round of general asset accumulation through 2025 so the bar was always going to be high to sustain such moves. Australia is facing strong outflows despite the recent recovery in iron prices. As a developed economy, its sensitivity to commodities is considered softer, especially with China no longer anchoring the super-cycle. However, this may offer some value up ahead, especially as AUD is also seen as attractive.

Breaking down global sectoral flows by region, the materials sector is the clear outperformer. Over the past week, on a GICS level 2 (industry group) and GICS level 3 (industry) basis, we find that associated industries have been net bought across every region apart from DM EMEA. That is the region which is arguably most resource-scarce, even though there are companies based in the region with strong presence in the industry.

The leading regions at present are DM Americas (where both the U.S. and Canada have a significant local and global presence) and EM APAC, where China will be leading the way in riding the price surge due to extensive investments globally in mining. EM APAC’s performance also indicates that recent events in Latin America are not seen as having an impact on Chinese resource assets for now. Meanwhile, EM Americas is also performing well; however given the high level of production exposure for Peru, Brazil and Chile to some of the strongest-gaining metals such as silver, aluminum, copper and even iron ore, YTD flows have been disappointing.

What's Changed?

We are in risk-on territory, with USD higher and stocks rallying globally, led by the focus on AI, while U.S. bond yields are higher. Behind the sentiment shift lie expectations of an improved U.S. jobs report, President Trump’s push to buy mortgage-backed securities to cut borrowing costs for housing and expectations that the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs will bring clarity. There is also a relief rally that a further military attack in Venezuela was not deemed necessary.

• Venezuela. Speaking in a Fox News interview on Thursday, the U.S. president suggested further military action, declaring, “We are going to start now hitting the land with regard to the cartels.” However this action was called off in an early morning social media post, after Venezuela released five political prisoners. Oil markets have come full circle (WTI up 0.25% at $57.90), with prices remaining largely the same as they were last week. U.S. oil executives will be meeting President Trump today regarding his push to spend $100bn to jumpstart infrastructure and drilling in Venezuela. On a related note, Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro are expected to meet today after their hour-long Wednesday call. COP has regained ground from the selling seen Monday.
• Mortgages. In a social media post, President Trump has instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200bn in mortgage bonds, since they are flush with cash. The FHFA Director Bill Pulte said in a CNBC interview that he expects Trump will make a decision in the next month or two on a possible initial public offering of Fannie and Freddie. Risk premiums of MBS to U.S. bonds narrowed, and home lender shares rallied 10%. U.S. bonds are moving in the opposite direction ahead of the jobs report and higher commodity prices.
• Supreme court and tariff ruling. Markets are expecting the court to rule against President Trump’s tariffs. In November, justices appeared skeptical of the duties, questioning the administration’s position. The ruling will have significant consequences for the revenue from tariffs and the companies that paid them. Expectations are that this will add to bond concerns about deficits and help some U.S. importer stocks.
• Food prices. The UN FAO world food price index fell for the fourth successive month, but in China December CPI rose in part because of food. Chinese PPI also move higher but remains negative. CNY is up 0.1% on the week, in a fourth weekly gain, as it holds below 6.99.

Bottom line: The U.S. jobs report is driving market volatility today – given 50,000 jobs is the standard deviation noise of the report and expectations are skewed higher. Positions for bonds and stocks have shifted ahead of earnings next week, supply from IG and expectations around more next week. The USD is breaking higher and there is a sense of renewed U.S. exceptionalism driving the markets. Rotation and dispersion have left many vulnerable to a good news week for U.S. assets. Investors globally are rethinking exposures and returns for the year ahead. 

What You Need to Know

The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to issue a pivotal ruling on President Trump’s broad “Liberation Day” tariffs, marking a major test of presidential authority over trade. The court has signaled Friday as an opinion day, its first chance to decide whether Trump lawfully used a 1977 national emergency statute in imposing sweeping duties on global partners. The tariffs have drawn global scrutiny and prompted lawsuits from companies such as Costco seeking refunds if the measures are struck down. Justices from across the ideological spectrum questioned the administration’s legal rationale during November arguments. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have warned that losing tariff powers would harm U.S. strength, while noting the administration has alternative – though less efficient – legal tools available. S&P Mini -0.032% to 6959.75, DXY +0.124% to 99.056, 10y UST +1.6bp to 4.183%

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its economic growth outlook at its January 23 meeting according to Bloomberg, reflecting the boost from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ¥17.7tn stimulus package, while keeping interest rates unchanged after last month’s hike to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Officials believe the fiscal measures will support underlying inflation and increase the likelihood of meeting the BoJ’s medium‑term targets, though they see little need to alter their longer‑term inflation forecast. While inflation is projected to slow as food and utility costs ease, policymakers intend to look past temporary factors and focus on broader price trends. They are also monitoring the weak yen’s impact as firms are increasingly passing higher costs on to consumers. Nikkei +1.609% to 51939.89, USDJPY -0.546% to 157.54, 10y JGB +1.6bp to 2.097%.

The U.K. government will exclude financial services from its push for closer EU alignment, after City firms warned against returning to Brussels rules. The Financial Times reports that while U.K. ministers are seeking improved cooperation with the EU, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has no plans to reintegrate the sector into the single‑market framework, despite broader discussions about customs arrangements. Industry leaders argue the U.K. has gained regulatory flexibility since Brexit and fear renewed uncertainty just as the City is regaining momentum. Officials say financial services is an area where the U.K. has deliberately diverged, and alignment makes little sense given its global strength. Although cooperation with Europe continues, the government maintains that any new alignment, such as in food or energy standards, will not extend to finance. FTSE 100 -0.035% to 10044.69, GBPUSD -0.179% to 1.3423, 10y gilt -1.2bp to 4.404%.

China has launched an antitrust review of the food delivery industry amid concerns that intense price wars, heavy subsidies and traffic manipulation practices are distorting competition and harming the broader economy. This is another indication that Beijing is intent on curbing “involution” and avoiding deflation. The State Council’s anti‑monopoly and anti‑unfair-competition office said it is assessing potential monopoly risks and aims to restore orderly market conditions. Regulators will conduct on‑site inspections, interviews and surveys to examine platform behavior and gather input from merchants, gig workers and consumers. Authorities highlighted that increasingly aggressive subsidy campaigns and traffic control tactics among platforms have escalated internal competition and placed additional pressure on offline businesses. CSI 300 +0.449% to 4758.92, USDCNY +0.042% to 6.9816, 10y CGB -1.1bp to 1.875%.

What We're Watching

U.S. December nonfarm payrolls consensus forecast at 70k from 64k in November, with whisper slightly lower at 65k and average hourly earnings expected at 0.3% m/m, 3.6% y/y from 0.1% m/m, 3.5% y/y. The unemployment rate is seen improving to 4.5% from 4.6% in November.

U.S. October housing starts forecast at 1330k vs. 1307k in August.

U.S. January preliminary University of Michigan Consumer sentiment is expected to improve to 53.5 from 52.9 in December. One-year and five-year inflation expectations are seen at 4.1% (December 2025: 4.2%) and 3.3% (December 2025c: 3.2%), respectively.

Canada December net change in employment forecast to decline -2.5k from 53.6k in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% from 6.5% in November.

Central bank speakers: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin delivers a speech on the economic outlook. The ECB’s Philip Lane is giving a keynote speech at a biennial conference on “The Danish Economy in a Changing World.”

What iFlow is Showing Us

Mood: iFlow Mood has eased to 0.171, with equities turned negative selling for the first time since early December, against a pickup in selling momentum in core sovereign bonds. iFlow Carry is positive and statistically significant.

FX: BRL stood out with significant outflows, against most inflows in PLN and JPY. Elsewhere, USD posted light buying, against outflows in EUR and GBP. LatAm and EMEA currencies were better bid, against outflows in APAC currencies, led by INR and THB.

FI: Good demand for sovereign bonds in LatAm against mixed flows in the rest of the iFlow universe. U.K. gilts and Indian government bonds posted the most buying, against selling in Turkish and Indonesian government bonds.

Equities: Peru posted significant buying flows, followed by Sweden and Hungary amid broad outflow pressures. European, U.K, Mexican, Hong Kong and Taiwanese equities were most sold. Within DM Americas, the materials, utilities and energy sectors were bought, against selling in the rest.

Quotes of the Day

“Practice is the philosophy of continuous improvement. Get a little bit better every single day.” – Brian Tracy

“Progressive improvement beats delayed perfection.” – Mark Twain

Economic Details

Retail trade in both the euro area and the EU rose by 0.2% m/m in November 2025, following modest growth in October. Compared with November 2024, sales increased by 2.3% in both regions. Monthly data show declines in food, drinks and tobacco in the euro area, while non‑food sales increased and automotive fuel dipped slightly; in the EU, food and fuel were stable and non‑food sales rose. Luxembourg, Portugal and Denmark saw the strongest monthly gains, while Croatia and Belgium recorded the largest drops. Year on year, retail volumes grew across all major categories in both regions, with Cyprus, Portugal and Denmark leading increases, whereas Romania, Slovakia and Austria posted declines. Euro Stoxx 50 -0.325% to 5904.32, EURUSD -0.317% to 1.1643, BBG AGG Euro Government High Grade EUR -3.3bp to 2.965%.

House prices in Q3 2025 rose by 5.1% y/y in the euro area and 5.5% y/y in the EU, matching the growth rates seen in the previous quarter. Quarter on quarter, prices increased by 1.6% in both regions. Among member states, Finland was the only country to record a y/y decline, at -3.1%, while Hungary (+21.1%), Portugal (+17.7%) and Bulgaria (+15.4%) saw the strongest annual gains. Prices fell q/q in five countries, most notably Luxembourg (-3.1%), Finland (-2.2%) and Slovenia (-1.1%), while Latvia, Slovakia and Portugal posted the sharpest increases.

Germany’s industrial production rose 0.8% m/m in November 2025, extending a modest recovery after a revised 2.0% increase in October. Growth was driven mainly by a strong rebound in the automotive sector (+7.8%), along with gains in machinery and equipment, while energy generation fell sharply (‑7.8%). Overall industry output excluding energy and construction increased by 2.1%, though consumer and intermediate goods declined slightly. Energy‑intensive industries saw a 1.5% monthly drop and remained well below 2021 levels. Despite November’s improvement, production from January to November 2025 was still 1.2% lower y/y, reflecting earlier weakness. However, rising truck toll mileage and stronger order intake suggest improving momentum heading into December. DAX +0.021% to 25127.46, EURUSD -0.317% to 1.1643, 10y Bund +0.6bp to 2.869%.

German exports in November 2025 fell by 2.5% m/m, while imports rose 0.8%. Exports totaled €128.1bn and imports €115.1bn, resulting in a reduced trade surplus of €13.1bn. Compared with November 2024, exports were 0.8% lower and imports 5.4% higher. Trade with EU countries declined, with exports down 4.2% and imports 4.0% lower, including a 3.9% drop in exports to Eurozone partners. Exports to non‑EU countries held nearly steady, though imports from these countries increased significantly. Overall, the data indicate weakening foreign demand alongside rising import volumes, narrowing Germany’s foreign trade balance.

German construction prices in November 2025 rose by 3.2% y/y, slightly above the 3.1% increase previously reported for August 2025. Prices were also 0.5% higher than in August 2025, indicating continued cost pressure in residential construction. Raw construction work became 2.5% more expensive, driven by concrete work (+1.5%) and masonry (+1.3%), while roofing (+4.5%), earthworks (+3.1%) and carpentry and wood construction (+5.4%) saw even stronger increases. These developments reflect broad inflationary trends across construction services and materials, contributing to steadily rising overall building costs in Germany.

French household consumption of goods in November 2025 declined by 0.3% after a revised +0.5% in October, reflecting weakness across major categories. Energy consumption fell sharply (‑2.0%), reversing the previous month’s rise, with lower use of gas, electricity and refined petroleum products. Food consumption decreased (‑0.2%), as higher purchases of unprocessed agricultural goods were offset by a marked drop in agro‑food products; tobacco consumption continued its multi‑month decline. In contrast, manufactured goods consumption accelerated (+0.4%), supported by increases in durables (+0.5%), especially household equipment (+1.9%), and a rebound in clothing (+0.5%). Overall, the November data show a pullback in essentials but sustained momentum in durable and discretionary goods. CAC 40 +0.116% to 8243.47, EURUSD -0.317% to 1.1643, 10y OAT -0.1bp to 3.528%.

French industrial production in November 2025 showed a mixed picture. Manufacturing output rose by 0.3% after being nearly stable in October, while total industry output was almost unchanged, edging down 0.1%. Growth was driven mainly by a strong rebound in transport equipment, up 2.6%, including a 2.7% rise in automotive production. Production also increased in electrical, electronic and IT equipment. However, output declined in other industrial products, in the food industry and in coke and refining, while energy‑related industries fell sharply by 1.9%. Over the three months from September to November, industrial production was 1.8% higher than a year earlier, but construction output continued to contract.

Italian retail sales rose in November 2025, increasing by 0.5% m/m in value terms and 0.6% m/m in volume terms. Both food and non‑food products contributed to the monthly gain. Over the September-November period, sales were broadly stable, with a slight rise by value and a small decrease by volume. Year on year, retail sales grew 1.3% by value and 0.5% by volume, with food sales up by value but down by volume, while non‑food sales increased on both measures. Among non‑food items, perfumery and personal care products showed the strongest annual growth. Compared with November 2024, sales increased for large retailers and online commerce but fell for small shops and out‑of‑store channels. FTSE MIB +0.248% to 45671.7, EURUSD -0.317% to 1.1643, 10y BTP -0.1bp to 3.508%.

Spain’s industrial production in November 2025 showed clear improvement, with the seasonally and calendar‑adjusted index rising 4.5% y/y, up 3.3 percentage points from October. The unadjusted annual rate reached 1.8%. Monthly output increased by 1.0% after adjustment, also stronger than the previous month. Energy recorded the strongest y/y growth at 7.2%, while consumer durables remained the only category in decline, at -3.3%. Intermediate goods and non‑durable consumer goods posted solid gains, and capital goods rose modestly. Monthly sector data showed energy leading growth, while consumer durables again contracted. By region, industrial output increased in nine autonomous communities and decreased in eight. IBEX 35 +0.349% to 17653, EURUSD -0.317% to 1.1643, 10y Bono -0.1bp to 3.254%.

Dutch November manufacturing output eased to 0.7% y/y from 2.1% y/y in October. The strongest gains were in repair and installation of machinery (+6.3% y/y) and rubber and plastic products (+5.7% y/y), while metal products declined the most (-2.1% y/y). Producer confidence improved in December to -1.1 from -1.7 in November, above the 20-year average, with the transport equipment sector most positive (2.3) and textiles, clothes and leather most negative (-4.5). AEX -1.442% to 965.03, EURUSD -0.317% to 1.1643, 10y NGB +0.4bp to 2.939%.

Switzerland’s unemployment rate rose to 3.1% in December 2025, increasing by 0.2 percentage points m/m as the number of people out of work climbed by 8,415 to 147,275, 13% higher than a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted unemployment remained at 3.0%. Youth unemployment reached 13,644, up 1.8% from November, while unemployment among older workers rose to 40,656, a 6.3% monthly increase. The number of registered job seekers grew to 231,624, and reported job vacancies rose sharply to 35,940. In October, 3,256 individuals exhausted their unemployment benefits, while short‑time working continued to expand, affecting 10,785 workers. SMI +0.201% to 13350.82, EURCHF -0.092% to 0.93158, 10y Swiss GB +0.2bp to 0.298%.

Swedish GDP in November 2025 increased by 0.9% m/m, according to the preliminary monthly indicator. Calendar‑adjusted GDP was 2.7% higher than a year earlier, signaling a rebound after two weaker months. The GDP indicator, which is based on limited and early data, offers a first impression of economic activity and sits outside the formal national accounts. November’s improvement was driven mainly by service‑producing industries, which more than offset slower developments among goods producers and the general government sector. The figures indicate a renewed strengthening in Sweden’s economic momentum following earlier softness. OMX -0.856% to 2937.939, EURSEK -0.005% to 10.7544, 10y Swedish GB 0bp to 2.908%.

Sweden’s private sector production in November 2025 increased by 0.5% m/m and by 3.5% y/y, reflecting solid underlying growth. Industrial production was nearly unchanged, slipping 0.1% m/m, though still 4.2% higher than in November 2024. The services sector showed the strongest performance, expanding by 0.7% m/m and 3.7% y/y, underscoring its continuing role as the main driver of output. Construction activity also remained broadly stable, declining by 0.1% m/m but rising 1.0% y/y. Overall, the data indicate a steady improvement in private sector activity, with services leading growth while industry and construction show modest but positive y/y gains.

Norway’s consumer prices rose by 3.2% y/y in December 2025, while the CPI-ATE (excluding energy and tax changes) increased by 3.1%. Both indices grew 0.1% between November and December 2025, indicating modest monthly inflation. The data show continued broad-based price increases across key expenditure groups, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year. The figures reflect stabilizing inflationary pressures, with energy‑adjusted measures closely tracking overall CPI developments. Overall, the inflation environment remains moderate but persistent, consistent with Norway’s broader price trends during 2025. OSE +0.154% to 1683.91, EURNOK +0.667% to 11.7315, 10y NGB +3.7bp to 4.187%.

Norway’s producer prices increased by 2.0% m/m in November 2025, reflecting a strong monthly rise primarily driven by energy goods, which surged 3.5%, including a dramatic 38.0% jump in electricity, gas and steam. Excluding energy, producer prices rose a more moderate 0.8%. Over the past 12 months, overall PPI fell by 8.1%, largely due to steep declines in oil and gas extraction (‑24.4%) and refined petroleum products (‑15.7%). Manufacturing prices increased by 0.4% m/m and 1.8% y/y, supported by higher prices for food products (+1.0%) and basic metals (+2.2%). Overall, November’s figures show a sharp short‑term rebound driven by energy, while broader annual price trends remain negative.

Hungarian retail trade grew in November 2025, with volumes up 2.5% y/y in both raw and calendar‑adjusted terms. Food retailing increased by 2.6% overall, driven by a 4.4% rise in non‑specialized food shops, while specialized food, beverage and tobacco store sales declined by 3.4%. Non‑food retail sales expanded by 4.6%, supported by strong growth in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, manufactured goods shops, and furniture and electrical goods, though textiles and books saw declines. Online and mail‑order sales rose sharply by 12%, and automotive fuel sales increased 0.7%. Month on month, retail volumes edged up 0.1%. In the January-November period, total retail volumes were 2.8% higher than a year earlier. Budapest SI -0.558% to 115909.6, EURHUF -0.151% to 385.65, 10y HGB 0bp to 6.71%.

Czech unemployment rose to 4.8% in December, up 0.2 percentage points m/m. Labor offices registered 354,314 jobseekers, roughly 13,000 more than in November, while the number of available vacancies fell by about 3,200 to 87,422. Unemployment had been significantly lower in the previous December, at 4.1%, with fewer jobseekers and far more openings. The highest regional unemployment in December was in Ústí nad Labem at 7.1%, while Prague had the lowest rate at 3.6%. District-level rates ranged from 9.9% in Most to 2.7% in Rychnov. On average, there were 4.1 applicants per vacancy, rising to over 21 in Karviná, reflecting substantial regional labor market imbalances. Prague SE +0.18% to 2750.97, EURCZK -0.116% to 24.293, 10y CZGB +1bp to 4.514%.

Türkiye’s industrial production increased in November 2025, rising 2.4% y/y. Manufacturing output was the main driver, expanding by 2.7%, while mining and quarrying edged up 0.2%. In contrast, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production decreased by 2.0% y/y. On a m/m basis, total industrial production grew 2.5%. Manufacturing again showed strong momentum, increasing by 3.1% from October. Mining and quarrying fell sharply by 4.8%, and energy‑related output also declined slightly, down 0.5%. Overall, the data indicate steady annual growth led by manufacturing, coupled with a robust monthly rebound despite weaknesses in the mining and energy sectors. BI 100 +0.638% to 12165.11, USDTRY -0.211% to 43.1437, 10y TGB -3bp to 29.3%.

Chinese December CPI maintained its upward momentum, with the headline rate at 0.8% y/y (November: 0.7% y/y) and core CPI steady at 1.2% y/y. December food inflation accelerated to 1.1% y/y from 0.2% y/y in November, led by fresh vegetables (0.8% m/m, 18.2% y/y) and fresh fruits (2.6% m/m, 4.4% y/y), against -0.8% m/m, -6.1% y/y in meat prices. Non-food inflation was unchanged at 0.8% y/y. The consumables component rose 0.3% m/m, 1.0% y/y vs. 0.6% y/y in November while services inflation eased slightly from 0.7% y/y to 0.6% y/y. CSI 300 +0.449% to 4758.92, USDCNY +0.042% to 6.9816, 10y CGB -1.1bp to 1.875%.

China’s December industrial producer prices (PPI) came in at 0.2% m/m, -1.9% y/y from 0.1% m/m, -2.2% y/y in November. Producer input prices for goods fell 2.1% y/y but rose 0.4% m/m. Key contributors to the y/y fall in PPI included mining (-4.7%), raw materials (-2.6%) and processing industries (-1.6%). Notably, prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 10.5% y/y and 2.5% m/m. For 2025, PPI fell 2.6% y/y (-2.2% y/y in 2024); input prices declined by 3.0% (-2.2% y/y in 2024).

Japanese November household spending was ¥314,242, up 6.3% y/y in nominal terms or 2.9% in real terms (October -3% y/y). On the income front, the average monthly income per household was ¥519,304, up 1.0% in nominal terms but down 2.2% y/y in real terms. Nikkei +1.609% to 51939.89, USDJPY -0.546% to 157.54, 10y JGB +1.6bp to 2.097%.

Japan’s leading index rose to 110.5 from 109.8 in November, the seventh consecutive rise, while the coincident index eased to 115.2 from 115.9 in the first decline in three months. The official assessment for the coincident index remains “bottoming out,” unchanged from the prior month. The drivers behind November’s coincident index decline were the industrial production index (-0.46), wholesale sales (-0.42), production goods shipments (-0.35) and durable consumer goods shipments (-0.18), while the export volume index (+0.39) and investment goods shipments (ex-transport equipment) (+0.33) were positive.

South Korea’s November current account posted a strong $12.237bn surplus (January-November surplus: $101.82bn). The goods balance came in at a $13.31bn surplus, driven by $60.11bn (+5.5% y/y) in exports against $46.8bn (-0.7% y/y) of imports. The services balance posted a deficit of $2.73bn, mainly due to a travel deficit of $0.96bn. Outbound equity flows eased to $12.54bn but remained high by historical standards. Note the record foreign demand for South Korean debt securities ($14.945bn). KOSPI +0.746% to 4586.32, USDKRW -0.422% to 1458.7, 10y KTB -1.2bp to 3.345%.

Malaysian November unemployment fell 0.1% to 518.4k, lowering the rate to 2.9% from 3.0% in October, the lowest since December 2014. Employment rose by 0.2% to 17.09 million (October: 17.06 million) with steady growth in the services, agriculture, manufacturing, construction and mining sectors. Employees made up 74.8% of people in work, increasing by 0.1% to 12.78 million (October: 12.76 million), while own-account workers grew 0.3% to 3.26 million. The labor force increased by 0.2% to 17.61 million (October: 17.58 million), with participation steady at 70.9%. KLCI +0.644% to 1680.33, USDMYR -0.226% to 4.0715, 10y MGB -0.4bp to 3.508%

Malaysia’s November Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose 4.3% y/y in November 2025, down from 6.0% in October. Manufacturing grew 4.9% (October: 6.5%), driven by export-oriented industries (+5.0%, October: 7.2%) with strong gains in computer, electronics and optical products (+10.7%) and electrical equipment (+13.9%). Mining output increased by 2.3% y/y, led by crude oil and condensate (+4.3%) and natural gas (+1.0%). Electricity output rose 2.7%. On a m/m basis, IPI fell -1.1% m/m (October: +2.1%).

Malaysia’s November manufacturing sales rose 4.6% y/y to MYR 169.4bn, slowing from October’s 6.3% y/y. Electrical and electronics led with 10.8% y/y growth (October: 11.6%), supported by food, beverages and tobacco (+7.7% y/y) and non-metallic mineral/basic metal products (+3.4% y/y). Sales were down 1.3% m/m. Export-oriented industries (70.7% of sales) grew 4.6% y/y (October: 6.9%), driven by computer/electronics (+11.1%) and electrical equipment (+10.8%). Domestic-oriented industries increased by 4.6% y/y, with food processing up 8.9%. Employment rose 0.8% y/y to 2.4 million; wages grew 1.9% y/y to MYR 8.46bn.

Taiwan December total exports expanded by 43.4% y/y to $62.48bn; total imports rose by 14.9% y/y to $43.04bn, resulting in a trade surplus of $19.43bn. In 2025, total exports increased by 34.9% and total imports grew by 22.6% y/y, leading to a trade surplus of $157.14bn. The details show exports of information, communication and audio-video products, parts of electronic products, and machinery growing by 126.3%, 24.1% and 11.0%, respectively. However, exports of base metals and articles of base metal, and of chemicals declined by 7.8% and 6.7%, respectively. Exports to the U.S., mainland China and Hong Kong, ASEAN, Europe, Japan and South Korea grew by 125.9%, 11.3%, 20.3%, 54.5%, 26.2% and 33.6%, respectively. TAIEX -0.236% to 30288.96, USDTWD -0.08% to 31.595, 10y TGB +1.5bp to 1.4%.