Key Highlights

• Risk sentiment is recovering despite differing narratives on U.S.-Iran talks.
• Philippines signals rapprochement with China due to energy crisis.
• Japan is to downgrade its characterization of ties with China.

Chart of the Day

iFlow Trend points to FX momentum themes at a three-year high

^{Source: BNY}

Risk is attempting to rally, albeit somewhat cautiously, amid reports of talks between the U.S. and Iran regarding the cessation of hostilities. From a market structure perspective, the timing could not be better, as our iFlow Trend indicator has recently hit its highest levels since late 2023, in positive statistical significance. This indicates that the market is fully on board with the momentum trade and it is perhaps time to look for mean reversion.

It is obvious that the strongest momentum trades have favored risk-off moves, so even without any additional triggers there was going to be better risk/reward in fading these recent moves, at least tactically. If there is a clear path toward cessation of hostilities, we would expect swift reversals, and there are several key names in play.

To identify currencies which can benefit from an end to momentum flows, we continue to use momentum as an anchor and attempt to identify which currencies can move the most in rankings, if iFlow Trend moves toward negative statistical significance, whereas the currencies with the weakest momentum hitherto can benefit from the strongest inflows. Out of the top five, four should expect some good purchases: TRY, INR and IDR, plus TWD as the funder with the most to gain from improvement in flow. These names should not come as a major surprise given the current fundamentals. We think the market structure case is clear, but actively resolving supply issues is a different matter given the nature of the conflict and its impact.

What's Changed?

Risk sentiment is fading as the war continues despite optimism over a truce and talks. The headline fatigue regarding signals about de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran stands out. Equities are mixed, while oil is up. USD is higher, with AUD in particular lower. Bond performance has been mixed, as flash PMI reports suggested lower growth despite higher inflation risks. The economic data show France’s composite PMI slipping back into contraction, India’s flash PMIs cooling and Japanese CPI easing. Central bank commentary underscores a “fog of war” backdrop for the Fed, while the news agenda for the U.S. session will focus on how the knock-on effects of the war are showing up in prices and growth outlooks.

• Oil and APAC fade: APAC equities faded from intraday highs as oil rebounded. Breadth indicators flagged heavy “up volume” following an extreme “down volume” day. Europe has been selling equities, led by stagflation fears. There is a need to quantify the oil price path and equity risk across global markets. The different correlations between copper, gold and oil are sending out mixed signals. The deal/no deal scenario analysis is driving binary outcomes for positioning as we head into month-end, rather than a more nuanced state in which the conflict continues to drag on.
• Reaction functions: Japan’s Ministry of Finance has intervention plans in store not for JPY, but for oil. The possibility of selling oil futures contracts to ease war-related pressure on other commodities and FX is under discussion. Japan has already started to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserves. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is reviewing oil-related products and supply chain risks, having already pledged to keep gasoline prices stable.
• Headline fatigue: Iranian attacks overnight on Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia highlight the fragility of current hopes of talks to end the conflict. The Gulf States appear to be edging toward joining in on the U.S. side, likely complicating potential talks. Israeli officials have noted President Trump’s push for a deal but are dubious about the success of any talks. Doubts have been cast on reports by India’s News18 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiations. Price action around headlines on talks and the war is having less effect on markets today.

Bottom line: The bigger stories behind the fading reactions revolve around credit today. Apollo capped a private credit fund after withdrawal requests hit 11%, the Cliffwater redemption requests story continues to roil and a focus on liquidity continues, while Moody’s has downgraded a joint KKR and Future Standard fund to junk status.  The point is that the unintended consequences of the current conflict on rates are driving money squeezes everywhere. The energy supply shock may be the headline leader, but the financial fallout is being felt as well. Markets are likely to see any uneven headlines about peace in the context of what happens next. Fading reactions to the immediate conflict aren’t going to translate into ongoing calm or lower volatility. Month-end flows are likely to bear this out, with a continuing risk reduction bias.   

What You Need to Know

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has highlighted the impact of the Middle East conflict on New Zealand’s economy, expecting higher near-term headline inflation and weaker growth momentum. She acknowledged the risks to global financial stability that could affect New Zealand banks but noted their resilience thanks to strong capital and liquidity buffers, signaling that RBNZ will not rush to raise rates. The Monetary Policy Committee will carefully assess the appropriate response to avoid premature or delayed actions, aiming to prevent temporary inflation spikes from becoming entrenched. The focus remains on delivering low and stable inflation over the medium term to support New Zealanders’ wellbeing. NZX 50 -1.53% to 12702, NZDUSD -0.41% to 0.5835, 10y NZGB -6bp to 4.823%.

Australian wheat prices reached multi-month highs in March 2026 amid rising diesel and fertilizer supply concerns linked to the Middle East conflict. Australian Standard White (ASW1) hit a 20-month high of $259/mt FOB Kwinana, while Australian Premium White (APW) rose to a 16-month high of $265/mt. Higher crude oil and fertilizer prices have increased input and domestic logistics costs, tightening growers’ sales as farmers stockpile diesel for seeding. Fertilizer availability worries may shift planting toward less fertilizer-intensive crops such as barley. The strong Australian dollar, which surpassed the 70 U.S. cents mark in February, is also supporting wheat prices. Wheat -0.043% to 587.5, hogs -0.072% to 104.4.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has signaled openness to restarting joint oil and gas discussions with China in the South China Sea, suggesting that the Iran war and resulting energy pressures could create momentum for a breakthrough despite longstanding territorial disputes. While tensions between the two countries had previously escalated, recent months have seen fewer maritime incidents alongside improving economic ties. Energy security concerns have become more prominent as domestic gas output has declined. Marcos indicated that the Philippines is pursuing multiple avenues to secure supply, including potential cooperation with China on energy, fuel and fertilizer, as well as exploring crude imports from Russia. The remarks highlight a pragmatic shift toward balancing geopolitical disputes with economic and energy priorities. PSEi +0.63% to 5936, USDPHP -0.602% to 59.941, 10y PHGB -14.9bp to 6.936%.

Japan is set to downgrade its characterization of relations with China in its upcoming Diplomatic Bluebook, reflecting a sustained deterioration in bilateral ties amid rising economic and security tensions. The revised language will describe China as an “important neighbor” rather than “one of the most important” partners, citing recent frictions including export controls on rare earth minerals, military incidents and increased pressure around Taiwan. The shift follows escalating disputes triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on potential military involvement in a Taiwan contingency, which prompted retaliatory measures from Beijing. The move underscores a broader hardening of Japan’s stance, alongside closer coordination with the U.S. to reduce reliance on Chinese critical mineral supply chains. Nikkei +1.43% to 52252, USDJPY +0.745% to 158.45, 10y JGB -4.7bp to 2.266%.

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has banned the import of new foreign-produced consumer wireless routers, citing national security risks linked to vulnerabilities exploited in recent cyberattacks. The ban affects companies such as TP-Link, Netgear and others manufacturing overseas, regardless of developer nationality. Existing routers and already-imported stock remain unaffected. The FCC’s decision follows a March 20 National Security Determination highlighting threats to U.S. infrastructure and defense. Netgear’s shares rose on expectations of possible exemptions and reduced competition. This move echoes previous U.S. restrictions on Chinese tech firms, aimed at securing the digital ecosystem against foreign cyber threats. CSI 300 +1.28% to 4475, USDCNY +0.056% to 6.8876, 10y CGB -0.8bp to 1.835%.

What We're Watching

Hungarian central bank rate decision: expected to hold at 6.25%.

U.S. ADP weekly employment change for the four-week period ending February 28 forecast at 6,000 after 9,000.

U.S. March Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity is expected at -15.7 vs. -17.3 prior.

U.S. Q4 final nonfarm productivity forecast to be revised down to 1.80% q/q vs. an initial estimate of 2.80% q/q and 5.2% q/q in Q3 2025.

U.S. Q4 final unit labor costs are expected to be revised up to 3.7% q/q vs. an initial estimate of 2.80% q/q and -1.8% q/q in Q3 2025.

U.S. March preliminary S&P PMI Manufacturing forecast to ease to 51.3 vs. 51.6.

U.S. March preliminary S&P PMI Services is expected to rise to 52.0 vs. 51.7.

U.S. March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index forecast to rise to -8 vs. -10.

U.S. March Richmond Fed Business Conditions is expected at -8 vs. -10 in the prior month.

Central bank speakers: The ECB’s Olaf Sleijpen presents the Dutch National Bank’s 2025 annual report. The ECB’s Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane gives concluding remarks at the ECB conference on artificial intelligence in the analysis of economic narratives, forecasting and risk assessment.

U.S. Treasury sells $80bn in 6-week bills and $69bn in new 2y notes.

What iFlow is Showing Us

Mood: iFlow Mood has stabilized at -0.125, with flat equity flows alongside continued demand for core sovereign bonds.

FX: Mixed and light flows in G10, with USD and JPY seeing inflows against EUR and GBP outflows. Elsewhere, flows were more dispersed, with significant outflows in ILS, ZAR, IDR and SGD, while COP, HUF and PHP saw strong inflows.

FI: Broad demand for government bonds across G10 and LatAm, led by the Eurozone, Brazil, Mexico and the U.K. Flows in EMEA and APAC were mixed and generally light.

Equities: Strong buying in Poland, Thailand and Singapore, while the rest of the iFlow universe saw a selling bias. The largest outflows were in U.S., Swiss, Colombian and Indian equities.

Quotes of the Day

“It’s better to burn out than to fade away.” – Neil Young

“Sometimes good things fall apart so better things could fall together.” – Marilyn Monroe

Economic Details

The Eurozone’s March flash PMI showed growth slowing sharply, with the composite output index declining to 50.5 from 51.9, marking a 10-month low and signaling near-stagnation. The slowdown was driven by services, where activity fell to 50.1 from 51.9, while manufacturing output remained more resilient at 51.7, although slightly softer than in February. Demand weakened, with new orders declining for the first time in eight months and export orders falling for a 49th consecutive month. At the same time, input cost inflation surged to its highest level since early 2023, reflecting energy and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, while business confidence dropped to its lowest ebb in nearly a year. Euro Stoxx 50 +0.56% to 5606, EURUSD -0.155% to 1.1595, BBG AGG Euro Government High Grade EUR 0bp to 3.31%.

Germany’s March flash PMI showed slowing private sector growth. The composite output index declined to 51.9 from 53.2, as weaker services activity offset a strong acceleration in manufacturing. Services growth slowed to 51.2, its weakest reading in seven months, amid falling new business and rising uncertainty. Meanwhile manufacturing output rose to a 49-month high of 53.7, supported by stronger orders that were linked in part to pre-emptive demand amid supply concerns. Cost pressures surged sharply, with input price inflation reaching its highest level in over three years, driven by energy and supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. Business confidence weakened and employment declined further, while supply chain delays intensified. DAX +0.29% to 22720, EURUSD -0.155% to 1.1595, 10y Bund -0.4bp to 3.001%.

France’s March flash PMI indicated a renewed deterioration in private sector activity, with the composite output index falling to 48.3 from 49.9, marking a five-month low and the sharpest contraction since October. Weak demand was a key driver, with both services and manufacturing output declining, while new orders fell at the fastest pace since mid-2025 and export demand dropped at a 15-month low. The downturn was compounded by supply-side disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, leading to the longest supplier delays in over three years and a sharp rise in input costs. Despite this, firms showed limited pricing power and business confidence weakened significantly, with employment edging lower. CAC 40 +0.59% to 7772, EURUSD -0.155% to 1.1595, 10y OAT +0.1bp to 3.712%.

Spain’s January business turnover shrank by 0.2% y/y on a calendar-adjusted basis, with the unadjusted series showing a sharper 2.4% contraction, alongside a 0.8% m/m fall, indicating weakening activity at the start of the year. Sectoral performance was mixed, with non-financial market services posting solid growth, while manufacturing and extractive industries recorded the steepest declines and energy-related sectors also contracted. Monthly dynamics were broadly negative, with only the energy and utilities segment registering growth, while commerce saw the largest drop. Overall, the data point to softening business revenues across key sectors, with underlying momentum remaining subdued despite pockets of resilience in services. IBEX 35 +0.43% to 16896, EURUSD -0.155% to 1.1595, 10y Bono +0.4bp to 3.519%.

Spanish property transfer activity decreased in January, with total registered property transactions falling 4.6% y/y and housing sales down 5.0%, reflecting softer real estate market momentum. The downturn was broad-based across transaction types and property categories, with both urban and rural sales declining, and sharper contractions in donations and inheritances. Housing transactions remained dominated by existing and free-market properties, both of which posted y/y declines. Regional data indicated significant divergence, with strong growth in Navarra and La Rioja contrasting with sharp drops in Madrid and the Canary Islands, highlighting uneven demand conditions across the country.

Spain’s mortgage market strengthened in January, with the number of new housing mortgages rising 6.3% y/y alongside an 8.6% increase in the average loan size, indicating improving credit demand and higher financing volumes. Total capital lent expanded significantly, while interest rates remained relatively stable at 2.87%, with a continued preference for fixed-rate borrowing. Despite the increase in new lending, mortgage modifications fell sharply, particularly renegotiations, although lender switching surged. Regional trends were mixed, with strong growth in Extremadura and Navarra offset by sizable falls in Aragón and the Canary Islands, pointing to uneven credit conditions across regions.

The U.K.’s March flash PMI signaled a sharp slowdown in private sector growth. The composite output index fell to 51.0 from 53.7, a six-month low, as both services (51.2 from 53.9) and manufacturing output (50.1 from 52.5) weakened. Demand deteriorated, with total new orders declining for the first time in four months and export sales falling, particularly in services. At the same time, cost pressures surged, with input price inflation reaching its highest level in just over three years and manufacturing costs rising at the fastest pace since October 2022. Supply chain disruptions intensified, employment declined and business confidence dropped to a nine-month low, reflecting heightened uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. FTSE 100 +0.39% to 9932, GBPUSD -0.164% to 1.3409, 10y gilt -0.3bp to 4.917%.

Poland’s February industrial production report showed broadly weak dynamics, with manufactured production increasing y/y for 193 products but declining for 272, indicating a clear skew toward contraction. Sold production followed a similar pattern, with 113 items rising and 185 falling y/y. On a m/m basis, production improved more broadly, with increases recorded for 266 manufactured products versus falls for 199. Notable gains included gas meters (+76.9% y/y) and public transport vehicles (+47.1%), while sharp falls were seen in garments and construction materials, including women’s jackets (-62.3%) and concrete products (-58.6%), highlighting highly uneven performances across sectors. WIG +0.01% to 119939, EURPLN +0.202% to 4.2672, 10y PGB -1.7bp to 5.686%.

Poland’s March business tendency survey signaled broadly weak economic sentiment. The general business climate deteriorated or stabilized across most sectors, while the sharpest contraction was seen in accommodation and food services, where the indicator fell to 3.7 from 8.1 m/m. Manufacturing sentiment worsened to -5.2 from -3.2, while transport also weakened to -3.4 from -0.1. In contrast, construction improved to -2.8 from -4.7 and wholesale trade rose to 2.5 from 1.4. The overall synthetic indicator (SI) declined to 97.8 from 100.0, driven by a fall in manufacturing and services components. This points to below-average economic conditions despite pockets of resilience in construction and trade. The unemployment rate also rose to 6.1% in February.

Czech business cycle surveys for March showed a modest improvement in sentiment, with economic confidence rising by 2.0 points in industry and 1.4 points in trade, while construction declined by 2.3 points and selected services edged down by 0.6 points. Consumer confidence strengthened more substantially, increasing by 2.8 points to 110.4, as fewer households expected a deterioration in the economic outlook and fewer reported worsening financial conditions. Expectations for household finances remained broadly unchanged, while the share of consumers not planning major purchases shrank slightly. Overall, the data point to a gradual improvement in sentiment, led by consumers and parts of the industrial sector despite continued weakness in construction and services. Prague SE -0.53% to 2524, EURCZK +0.09% to 24.479, 10y CZGB +2.2bp to 4.807%.

Türkiye’s short-term external debt increased by 3.6% m/m in January to $173.4bn, while the remaining maturity-based measure stood at $239.0bn, indicating elevated near-term rollover needs. The rise was driven primarily by the banking sector, where debt rose 7.0% m/m to $77.5bn, supported by increases in foreign currency deposits, TL deposits and external borrowing. In contrast, other sectors’ debt stock edged down 0.1% m/m to $68.3bn, reflecting a reduction in trade credits despite a sharp rise in cash loans. In terms of currency composition, USD accounted for 33.7% of the stock, followed by EUR at 26.9% and TRY at 25.5%, highlighting a diversified liability structure. BI 100 -0.69% to 13077, USDTRY +0.079% to 44.3478, 10y TGB +8bp to 34.34%.

Türkiye’s Financial Services Confidence Index decreased by 16.9 points m/m to 159.1 in March, reflecting a broad-based deterioration across sub-components, with declines in assessments of business conditions and demand over the past three months, as well as weaker demand expectations for the next three months. Survey results, based on responses from 147 institutions, indicate that sentiment remained above the 100-point threshold, signaling continued optimism despite the deterioration. Demand and activity indicators softened significantly, while employment dynamics diverged, with both realized and expected employment showing strengthening trends. At sub-sector level, confidence fell across all categories, led by sharp declines in auxiliary financial activities and financial services excluding insurance.

Türkiye’s manufacturing capacity utilization was flat m/m in March at 74.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the unadjusted rate came down 0.2 percentage points m/m to 73.3%, based on responses from 1,761 firms. The stable adjusted reading suggests unchanged underlying utilization momentum, while the slight dip in the headline series points to modest softening. At sector level, capacity utilization varied widely, with robust rates in tobacco (86.4%) and paper (83.8%) and weaker readings in leather (61.1%) and beverages (62.7%). By product groups, utilization increased for consumption goods and durable goods but fell for intermediate and investment goods, indicating mixed demand dynamics across production categories.

South Africa’s composite leading business cycle indicator rose 0.4% m/m in January, with gains in five of the ten components. Higher export commodity prices and improved business confidence stood out, more than making up for falls in vehicle sales and domestic manufacturing orders. The leading indicator reached an index level of 118.2, with y/y growth at 4.8%. In contrast, the coincident indicator decreased by 0.2% m/m in December, reflecting weaker industrial production and trade activity, while the lagging indicator rose by a marginal 0.1% m/m. Overall, the data point to modest forward-looking improvement alongside softer current economic conditions and limited backward-looking support. JSE TOP 40 +0.01% to 102621, USDZAR +0.503% to 16.9046, 10y SAGB +2.7bp to 9.044%.

South Africa’s FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index improved further in Q1 2026, rising to -7 from -9 in Q4 2025, extending its recovery from -13 in the prior quarter. The uptick was largely driven by stronger sentiment among higher-income households, which provided the main support to overall confidence. However, the outlook remains fragile, with geopolitical risks linked to the Iran conflict posing a potential headwind to sentiment going forward. The rise in fuel costs has led to a radical shift in market expectations for monetary policy, with multiple hikes now expected and fiscal space also facing material compression in the near term. ZAR remains at risk of adjustment as a well-held carry currency.

Japan’s national headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2026 eased to 1.3% y/y, from 1.5% in January – its lowest level since March 2022. Headline CPI was down for the third straight month at -0.2% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis. Core inflation excluding fresh food and energy slowed to 2.5% y/y (slightly down from 2.6% in January) and rose 0.1% m/m. Key contributors to inflation included food (+4.0% y/y) and communication services (+6.8% y/y), while falls for fresh vegetables (-9.0% y/y), fresh fruits (-10.7% y/y), electricity (-8.0% y/y) and gasoline (-14.9% y/y) moderated overall inflation. Nikkei +1.43% to 52252, USDJPY +0.745% to 158.45, 10y JGB -4.7bp to 2.266%.

Japanese private sector growth slowed in March, with the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI Output Index falling to 52.5 from 53.9 in February, marking the slowest expansion in three months. Both the manufacturing (51.4 vs. 53.0) and services (52.8 vs. 53.8) sectors saw softer activity growth. New orders and employment increased at weaker rates, while business confidence dropped to an 11-month low due to concerns over the Middle East war, which also drove the fastest rise in input costs in 11 months. Despite cost pressures, output charges rose modestly, with manufacturers raising prices faster than service providers.

Japan’s nationwide department store sales rose 1.6% y/y in February 2026 to ¥432bn, down from +2.3% y/y in January. Tokyo department store sales increased by 3.0% y/y, up from 2.0% in January. By category, national sales saw gains in sundries and cosmetics (+3.9% y/y) and clothing (+1.6% y/y), while sales of household goods declined (-7.5% y/y). In Tokyo, sundries and cosmetics rose 8.1% y/y, clothing increased by 4.4% y/y, but household appliances fell 10.2% y/y. Food sales showed modest growth nationally (+0.7% y/y) and in Tokyo (+1.5% y/y).

Australia’s private sector output contracted for the first time in 18 months in March, with the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI falling to 47.0 (February: 52.4). PMI services activity declined sharply to 46.6 (February: 52.8), while PMI manufacturing dipped to 50.1 (February: 51). New orders fell for the first time since July 2024, though export sales grew at the fastest pace in over 3.5 years, driven by manufacturing. Input price inflation hit a three-year high, pushing selling prices up at the fastest rate since August 2023. Employment rose modestly but at the slowest pace in four months. ASX -0.27% to 5298, AUDUSD +0.968% to 0.699, 10y ACGB -7.4bp to 5.044%.

South Korea’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.6% m/m, 2.4% y/y in February, vs. 0.7% m/m, 1.9% y/y in January, in the biggest y/y gain since July 2024. Key sub-indices showed increases: agricultural, forestry and marine products (+2.4% m/m, 4.5% y/y), manufacturing products (+0.5% m/m, 2,3% y/y), electric power, gas, water and waste (+0.1% m/m, -1.1% y/y) and services (+0.6% m/m, 3.2% y/y). The Domestic Supply Price Index rose 0.5% m/m and 1.3% y/y, while the Total Output Price Index was up 0.9% m/m and 4.2% y/y.  The information value of pre-conflict import price indices is now very limited due to material shifts in input pricing. KOSPI +2.74% to 5554, USDKRW -0.409% to 1494.45, 10y KTB +15bp to 3.885%.

Thailand’s trade data for February showed a 31.8% y/y surge in imports, accelerating from 29.4% in January, driven by higher demand for machinery, capital goods and gold. Export growth slowed to 9.9% y/y from 24.4% in January, weighed down by agricultural commodities. This marked the fifth consecutive month in which imports outpaced exports, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.8bn. The worsening trade deficit is negative for THB. Note that the data pre-date disruptions from the Middle East conflict that are affecting global trade and costs; the new outlook for balance of payments is therefore materially worse, subject to the duration of the conflict and resolution of supply constraints in downstream products. SET +1.29% to 1415, USDTHB +1.436% to 32.533, 10y TGN +9bp to 2.168%.

India’s private sector growth slowed in March to its weakest level since October 2022, with the HSBC Flash India Composite PMI Output Index falling to 56.5 (February: 58.9). Manufacturing PMI dropped sharply to a four-and-a-half-year low of 53.8 (February: 56.9), while services growth eased to 57.2 (February: 58.1). The slowdown was driven by softer domestic demand amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict. Input costs rose at the fastest rate in nearly four years, notably in energy, food and metals, while selling price increases lagged. Export orders surged to a record high, led by Asia, Europe and the U.S. Employment growth was moderate but the fastest since August 2025. SENSEX +2.21% to 74307, USDINR +0.198% to 93.7913, 10y INGB -2.3bp to 6.815%.

Taiwanese industrial production rose 17.83% y/y in February but was down 11.65% m/m due to Lunar New Year effects. Manufacturing was down 11.48% m/m but up 19.64% y/y. For January-February, industrial production rose by 22.95% YTD y/y and manufacturing by 24.78% YTD y/y. Growth was driven by strong demand in AI, high-performance computing and cloud services, boosting the electronics and semiconductor sectors. Traditional industries such as basic metals and chemicals saw falls on weak global demand. The outlook for March is positive, with production expected to increase. TAIEX -0.34% to 32612, USDTWD +0.2% to 32.028, 10y TGB -0.5bp to 1.415%.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) has announced four major measures to stabilize supplies of helium, petrochemical raw materials and downstream products amid Middle East conflict-related concerns. Helium supply, which is critical for semiconductor manufacturing, is being secured through alternative imports from the U.S. and domestic recycling systems. For petrochemical raw materials such as methanol, polyethylene and polypropylene, the MOEA is diversifying import sources and coordinating domestic inventory and inter-enterprise support. Measures include prioritizing domestic demand, urging reasonable pricing, preventing hoarding and price gouging, and maintaining close industry coordination to ensure stable supplies and prices for SMEs and consumers.