Key Highlights

• U.S. and Iran are set to sign a 60-day ceasefire extension on Friday, followed by nuclear talks.
• Swiss voters roundly reject population cap in a referendum.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank Chair Joachim Nagel warn against second-round inflation effects.

Chart of the Day

JPY finding bids but Japanese cash instruments face heavy liquidation

^{Source: BNY}

Governor Kazuo Ueda’s absence from tomorrow’s BoJ meeting has injected some additional uncertainty regarding the decision, but our flows indicate that JPY flows have improved. May saw the currency generally well-bought, except for a handful of marginal net selling days toward month-end. Despite breaching 160.00 to the USD and a general sense of market cynicism surrounding intervention conviction and effectiveness, the case for valuations remains strong. After all, Japan is a participant in the global technology move, and if a resolution can be reached in the strait, the balance of payments can improve further across North Asia and generate additional appreciation interest.

The only clear sign of JPY-related liquidation flow is in cash and short-term instruments (CAST). As this is the asset class where flow is most aligned with rate expectations, patterns over the past few months clearly point to disappointment in the BoJ. While a hike tomorrow remains the base case, we believe the lack of interest reflects expectations that the BoJ will undershoot interest rate expectations, with additional pressures now coming through via a more hawkish (or less dovish Fed). It is also possible that JPY’s liquidity preference may have also been affected by improved risk appetite, although balance of payments concerns in any case affected cash interest in JPY throughout the first weeks of the conflict and before the ceasefire.

What's Changed?

Global markets agree with the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war. U.S. equity futures are up 1-2%, while APAC markets have risen 3% and EU shares are up 1% to new record highs. The sector switch from energy to airlines dominated, while defense shares fell and IT rallied – particularly for any suppliers linked to SpaceX. The biggest focus remains on oil, with Brent down 5% a three-month low of $83/barrel. Natural gas in Europe is down 7% to a five-week low, while gold has jumped nearly 3%, as has Bitcoin. Global bonds have rallied, with 10y yields down 4-5bp. South Korea has led the way with a 7.3bp move, while Chinese rates are flat. In FX, USD is down to a two-week low; EM FX has seen unwinding of the oil/conflict premiums, led by PHP, IDR and INR; and within the G10, SEK has led while JPY has lagged.

• Deal details: The signing of the deal in Geneva this Friday (June 19) rests on ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. naval blockade and Israel’s actions, with some fighting ongoing. Most analysis overnight saw the MoU as likely to last for a few weeks (perhaps even the 60 days in the agreement), but the details of the deal are only now coming to light. According to Iran, it involves first, termination of military operations including in Lebanon; second, later discussions about sanction relief, and third, later talks about the Iranian nuclear program. More clarity on technical registrations for ships in the Strait of Hormuz and on Iranian frozen assets is needed to price in the sustainability of the MoU. Oil will remain the key barometer for short-term deal success.
• South Korea and G7: The U.S. and South Korea have agreed to cooperate closely on FX to address KRW weakness. Over the weekend, Deputy Finance Minister Moon Ji-sung met U.S. officials in Washington outside of regular meetings, highlighting the urgency around the won. In France, the focus of the G7 summit is on Ukraine and Iran, alongside economic imbalances that threaten financial stability. These include FX, with JPY part of the discussion. AI will also be on the docket. USD will be the key barometer for whether the South Korean and G7 meetings are producing concrete action. KRW is at a two-week low, still over 1,510 to the dollar, while JPY remains above 160.
• Politics and geopolitics: The news agenda this week – a short one in the U.S. because of the public holiday – includes the U.K. by-election in which Andy Burnham is vying for a seat in the parliament and preparing to launch an immediate leadership challenge against PM Sir Keir Starmer. Details of his plans and potential cabinet will be key for GBP and gilts. Also this week, Russia/Ukraine talks return to the spotlight after a birthday call between Presidents Putin and Trump. This partly reflects the G7 agenda and partly the push for another peace deal. Both should be watched for implications for EUR and the EU natural gas markets.

Bottom line: We are half-way through June, and the risk moderation that started the month looks to be ending. The key for equities and bonds to continue to rally rests on rate decisions and guidance ahead. Wednesday’s Fed meeting will act as a brake on some of today’s enthusiasm, along with the actual data: investors need to balance the extreme AI money flows against the rest of the economy, with industrial production and other data all key as a baseline for a bigger bounce in activity. FX markets also are likely to be watched, as carry and lower volatility need to see money put to work – along with the pesky role of U.S. rate differentials on the dollar. The agreement euphoria has been longer-lasting that other deal pushes since April, but some caution will remain in play for the rest of the week. That leaves cash level watching still relevant, as is reflected in gold and Bitcoin.

What You Need to Know

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ending a war that has killed thousands and paving the way for 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Officials are set to meet in Switzerland on June 19 to formalize the agreement, though key issues remain unresolved, including sanctions relief and financial incentives for Iran. Iran has said it will seek the removal of primary and secondary sanctions, while the U.S. has not released a text of the deal. The reopening should ease immediate risks to global energy supplies after the strait was blocked and nearly 600 vessels were stranded. Markets have reacted positively, with oil prices falling and Asian equities rising as fears of renewed conflict and inflationary pressure receded. Brent -5.153% to 82.83, WTI -5.891% to 79.88, Omani crude -7.005% to 81.91, Dubai crude -2.039% to 86.927.

Swiss voters have rejected the right-wing “No to ten million” immigration initiative, with provisional results showing a 55% to 45% no vote in yesterday’s referendum. The proposal would have capped Switzerland’s population at 10 million and potentially tightened access to free movement with the EU, prompting concerns for labor supply, housing and infrastructure. Rejection was strongest in French-speaking cantons and major cities, while some rural areas backed the measure. At the same time, voters approved a reform of civilian service, on 53% of the vote, making it less attractive to opt out of military service. The reform aims to reduce annual admissions into civilian service and reinforce army staffing amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The outcome is seen as supportive of Switzerland’s EU ties and businesses reliant on EU workers. SMI +0.94% to 13837, EURCHF -0.153% to 0.92045, 10y Swiss GB -3.8bp to 0.382%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a France Culture interview that high energy prices are beginning to spread into broader parts of the economy, with indirect inflation effects now visible in recent weeks. She defended the ECB’s first rate hike since 2023, saying the bank must act decisively to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, even if tighter borrowing costs weigh on growth. Lagarde acknowledged criticism that policy could hurt activity, but stressed that letting inflation escape control would be more damaging and costly in the long run. She also welcomed the reported interim U.S. and Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would be good news if confirmed. Euro Stoxx 50 +1.32% to 6269, EURUSD +0.329% to 1.1606, BBG AGG Euro Government High Grade EUR 0bp to 3.271%.

Fitch has affirmed China’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at A with a Stable Outlook. It said the rating is supported by China’s large, diversified economy, resilient growth prospects, pivotal role in global trade and strong external finances. Fitch expects GDP growth to remain resilient in 2026 at 4.6%, helped by robust exports and manufacturing, although domestic demand remains subdued due to soft household confidence, a drag from the property market and a fragile labor market. It also noted that China is gradually emerging from deflation, with price growth improving but still subdued. Key risks persist on the fiscal side, as high deficits, falling revenue, rising debt and contingent liabilities tied to local government financing vehicles continue to pressure public finances. Fitch expects debt to keep rising, though low funding costs and ongoing debt swaps are helping to contain near-term stress. CSI 300 +2.39% to 4892, USDCNY +0.083% to 6.7571, 10y CGB -0.2bp to 1.742%.

What We're Watching

U.S. June Empire Manufacturing is forecast to ease to 13.5 points vs. 19.6.

U.S. May industrial production growth is expected to ease to 0.3% m/m vs. 0.7% m/m, while manufacturing production is forecast to ease to 0.3% m/m vs. 0.6% m/m. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.2% vs. 76.1%.

U.S. June NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast to be unchanged at 37.0.

Canada May housing starts are forecast to ease to 255.2k vs. 279.3k.

Canada April manufacturing sales growth is forecast to rise to 4.5% m/m vs. 3.0% m/m; wholesale sales ex petroleum are forecast to ease to 0.2% m/m vs. 1.9% m/m.

Central bank speakers: ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives introductory remarks at an Austrian central bank event on international and climate economics.

U.S. Treasury sells $89bn in 13-week bills and $77bn in 26-week bills.

What iFlow is Showing Us

Mood: iFlow Mood has deteriorated further to a new recent low of -0.337, driven by accelerating global equity outflows alongside persistent demand for core government bonds.

FX: Flows were broadly biased toward outflows, led by CAD, AUD and BRL. In contrast, USD attracted inflows, while safe haven demand supported CHF and JPY.

FI: Strong buying continued across G10 and LatAm sovereign bonds. In APAC, Australia joined the broader regional trend of government bond outflows.

Equities: Selling pressure was widespread across G10, EMEA, LatAm and APAC equities, with the largest outflows concentrated in South Korea, Taiwan, Türkiye, South Africa, Chile, the U.K. and the U.S. This was partially offset by selective buying in Australia and Norway, alongside modest inflows into Chinese equities.

Quotes of the Day

“Agreement is made more precious by disagreement.” – Publilius Syrus

“Unless both sides win, no agreement can be permanent.” – Jimmy Carter

Economic Details

Euro area industrial production increased by 0.1% m/m in April, extending the modest recovery seen in March. Output was supported by gains in intermediate goods production (+0.8%) and non-durable consumer goods (+1.7%), while capital goods output fell 0.5% and energy production declined by 0.4%. Compared with April 2025, industrial production rose 0.3%, driven by a 3.4% increase in capital goods and a 1.6% rise in energy output. Among major member states, Italy recorded a 0.5% m/m increase, while Germany was unchanged. The data suggest euro area industry remains broadly stagnant, with modest gains in investment-related sectors offset by continued weakness in consumer goods production. Euro Stoxx 50 +1.32% to 6269, EURUSD +0.329% to 1.1606, BBG AGG Euro Government High Grade EUR 0bp to 3.271%.

The euro area recorded a deficit of €1.0bn in international trade in goods for April, compared with a surplus of €8.7bn a year earlier, as imports grew faster than exports. Exports to the rest of the world increased by 5.0% y/y to €255.4bn, while imports rose 9.3% to €256.4bn. The deterioration in the trade balance was mainly driven by a larger energy deficit and a smaller surplus in machinery and vehicles. For the first four months of 2026, the euro area’s cumulative trade surplus narrowed sharply to €12.9bn, from €63.7bn a year earlier. Exports fell 3.6% over the period, while imports were up 1.5%, highlighting the impact of higher energy costs and softer external demand.

Germany’s wholesale prices rose 5.9% y/y and fell 0.6% m/m in May. The y/y increase was driven mainly by higher prices for energy products and raw materials, linked to the conflict in Iran and the Middle East. Mineral oil products were 30.5% more expensive than a year earlier, while non-ferrous ores, metals and semi-finished metal goods rose 36.1% and chemicals were up 13.3%. By contrast, there were falls in prices of live animals, coffee, tea, cocoa and spices, and of milk, dairy products, eggs, edible oils and fats. DAX +1.73% to 25062, EURUSD +0.329% to 1.1606, 10y Bund -4.3bp to 2.952%.

Italian exports fell more sharply m/m than imports in April, with exports down 2.2% and imports down 0.6%. On a y/y basis, exports rose 8.8% by value and 3.5% by volume, while imports increased by 5.5% by value and 3.6% by volume. The trade surplus widened to €4.293bn from €2.448bn a year earlier, helped by a larger non-energy surplus, although the energy deficit deepened. Import prices climbed 3.3% m/m and 4.6% y/y. In the February-April quarter, exports and imports were both up strongly. FTSE MIB +0.87% to 51943, EURUSD +0.329% to 1.1606, 10y BTP -6.1bp to 3.661%.

U.K. average home prices fell 0.6% m/m in June to £376,191, in the largest June decline in 14 years, and were also down 0.5% y/y. Rightmove said sellers are lowering expectations to attract buyers amid elevated competition, more price-sensitive demand and broader economic uncertainty. The fall was concentrated in southern England and Wales, while more affordable northern regions such as the North East and Scotland held up better than a year earlier. Rightmove noted that June typically sees only modest gains, so the drop points to a softer summer market. New listings were down 5% y/y, while sales agreed were down 6% y/y. Mortgage affordability improved slightly, with the average two-year fixed rate easing to 5.07% from 5.18% in May. FTSE 100 +0.62% to 10537, GBPUSD +0.209% to 1.3434, 10y gilt -5.7bp to 4.779%.

Swiss producer and import prices fell in May. The total producer and import price index declined by 0.4% vs. April to 100.1 points and was down 1.8% from May 2025. Producer prices fell 0.4% m/m and 2.5% y/y, while import prices slipped 0.3% m/m and 0.2% y/y. The drop was driven mainly by lower prices for pharmaceutical products, oil and gas, and electricity, partly offset by higher plastics and metals prices. Domestic selling prices for processed products rose 0.6%, but export prices fell 1.0%. SMI +0.94% to 13837, EURCHF -0.153% to 0.92045, 10y Swiss GB -3.8bp to 0.382%.

SECO’s Swiss consumer sentiment measure improved only marginally in May to -38.1 points from -40.0 in April. The sub-indices for the economic outlook and financial outlook were down vs. May 2025, while the past financial situation and intent to make major purchases sub-indices were broadly unchanged y/y. The data mark a further improvement from the sharp conflict-related drop in March. Expected prices over the coming 12 months remain high, however, indicating very little let-up in near-term inflation expectations, but the SNB is unlikely to react forcefully at this week’s policy meeting.

Norway’s trade surplus shrank to about NOK 63bn in May, down roughly 25% vs. April, as maintenance on the continental shelf reduced oil and gas exports. Total goods exports declined by 10.7% to NOK 158.1bn, while imports rose 2.2% to NOK 95.5bn. Mainland exports, however, increased 4.9% to NOK 62.7bn, supported by higher prices for refined petroleum products and aluminum amid supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. The value of oil exports dropped 26% to NOK 45.2bn, while gas exports fell 10.4% by value, although prices for both remained elevated. The krone also appreciated for a fifth straight month. OSE -1.48% to 1966, EURNOK +0.461% to 11.0542, 10y NGB -5.9bp to 4.27%.

Swedish labor market data for May showed mixed conditions, with employment rising but the unemployment rate still elevated at 9.4%. Statistics Sweden said the number of employed people aged 15-74 increased by 68,000 from a year earlier to 5,299,000, while temporary employees rose by 94,000 to 676,000. Total hours worked averaged 163.1 million per week. At the same time, 549,000 people were unemployed, while seasonally adjusted unemployment was 8.7% and the employment rate was 69.3%. The labor force reached 5,848,000, and the unused labor supply was equivalent to 643,000 full time jobs. OMX +1.87% to 3172, EURSEK -0.587% to 10.8754, 10y Swedish GB -4.7bp to 2.799%.

Poland’s annual CPI inflation for May was 3.1%, unchanged from the flash estimate and slightly lower than April’s 3.2%. Consumer prices fell 0.3% m/m, mainly driven by lower food prices (-1.0%) and falls in recreation, culture and transport costs. Services inflation remained elevated at 5.7%, significantly above goods inflation of 2.1%. Housing, utilities and energy costs rose 5.0% y/y, while transport and recreation prices jumped 5.6%. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation remained subdued at 0.5% y/y. The inflation rate remained within the National Bank of Poland’s tolerance band around its 2.5% target, with cumulative inflation since December reaching 2.3%. WIG +1.25% to 140461, EURPLN -0.13% to 4.2407, 10y PGB -10.5bp to 5.483%.

Poland recorded an external trade deficit of PLN 7.3bn in January-April, with exports rising 3.3% y/y to PLN 532.8bn and imports increasing by 2.9% to PLN 540.1bn. The EU remained its dominant trading partner, accounting for 75.1% of exports and 53.2% of imports. Germany retained its position as the largest export market and import source, although its share of Polish exports edged down to 26.6%. Exports to Ukraine increased by 11.8%, while exports to the U.S. fell 7.3%. On the import side, purchases from China rose 7.7%, lifting its share to 15.7%. Poland maintained a substantial trade surplus with the EU but continued to record a large deficit with developing economies.

Poland’s services production increased by 11.0% y/y and 10.7% m/m in March, reflecting broad-based strength across major service sectors. After seasonal adjustment, services output was up 7.9% y/y and 1.9% m/m. Transport and storage output rose 13.8% y/y, while information and communication was up 10.1%. Professional, scientific and technical activities expanded by 15.0%, remaining one of the strongest-performing categories. At a more detailed level, film, video and television production services surged 31.0% y/y, while management consultancy grew 27.8%. The data point to continued momentum in Poland’s business services sector despite a weaker external environment.

Türkiye’s industrial production rose 6.0% y/y in April, pointing to a solid expansion in output. The main driver was manufacturing, which increased by 6.8%, while electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply rose 1.8%. Mining and quarrying was the only major subsector to record a fall (-2.8%). On a m/m basis, industrial production increased by 3.7%, supported by a 4.4% rise in manufacturing and a 0.8% gain in mining and quarrying, although utilities fell 2.8%. The release suggests broad-based monthly momentum despite weaker mining activity. BI 100 +2.78% to 14326, USDTRY +0.024% to 46.2796, 10y TGB -73bp to 33.08%.

Türkiye’s paid employee statistics for April showed a solid improvement in the labor market, with the number of paid employees in industry, construction, trade and services rising 2.0% y/y to 15.97 million. The increase was driven by construction (+6.8%) and trade and services (+3.4%), while industry contracted by 2.4% as manufacturing remained weaker. On a m/m basis, total paid employment rose 0.5% from March, with construction again leading at 1.1% and trade and services up 0.5%. Overall, the data suggest continued employment growth, but with clear divergence across sectors and ongoing pressure in industrial activity.

Türkiye’s central government budget execution for May showed a widening fiscal gap, as spending outpaced revenue. Budget expenditure rose 27.0% y/y to TRY 1.384tn, while budget revenues fell 18.0% to TRY 1.086tn, producing a budget deficit of TRY 298.2bn. That contrasts with a surplus in May 2025. Tax revenues shrank by 22.1% to TRY 931.5bn, with sharp drops in income tax and domestic VAT partly offset by gains in customs VAT, banking and insurance tax, and fees. For January-May, the deficit widened to TRY 1.057tn, while the primary balance remained in surplus at TRY 205.6bn, supported by stronger revenue growth.

Japan’s tertiary industry activity rose in April, with the seasonally adjusted index up 1.3% m/m, 2.2% y/y vs -0.6% m/m, 2.2% y/y in March. Broad-ranging personal services climbed 1.2% m/m, and broad-ranging business services 1.0% m/m. The main contributors to the monthly increase were finance and insurance (+3.2% m/m), information and communications (+2.0% m/m) and wholesale trade (+2.6% m/m). Support also came from sectors including living and amusement-related services, retail trade, medical and welfare services, business-related services, real estate, and transport and postal activities. Electricity, gas, heat supply and water declined by 0.5% m/m, partially offsetting the rise. The report indicates broad-based improvement in Japan’s service sector activity. Nikkei +4.99% to 69318, USDJPY +0.063% to 160.14, 10y JGB -4.6bp to 2.58%.

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) says Australians’ retirement income needs have risen as inflation has pushed up living costs. In its latest quarterly guidance, the ASFA said a couple owning their own home now needs AU$78,566 a year to retire comfortably, up AU$2,000 over the past six months, while a single person needs AU$55,923 a year, compared with AU$54,240 in the September quarter. The main cost pressures were electricity (+25%) and fuel (+24%). The ASFA said the lump sum needed to fund a comfortable retirement remains unchanged at AU$730,000 for couples and AU$630,000 for singles. The update highlights how inflation is continuing to push up retirement savings targets despite no change in the capital sum estimates. ASX +1.61% to 5631, AUDUSD +0.369% to 0.7073, 10y ACGB -0.6bp to 4.807%.

New Zealand’s services sector remained in contraction in May, with the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) falling to 47.5 points from 48.7 in April. All five sub-indices remained below 50, with activity and sales (44.7) the weakest, indicating subdued business conditions across the sector. New orders/business came in at 47.6, and employment at 48.6. Respondents cited rising costs, especially for fuel, and weak demand tied to a lack of consumer confidence. BusinessNZ said consumer-facing industries such as cafes, restaurants, and recreational and personal services were among the weakest performers, as households remained wary of discretionary spending. The report suggests the services sector is still struggling to regain momentum, while supplier deliveries were less weak and may allow a faster response if demand improves. NZX 50 -0.25% to 13361, NZDUSD +0.275% to 0.5849, 10y NZGB -5.7bp to 4.412%.

New Zealand’s electronic card transactions rose in May, signaling firmer consumer spending. Retail spending increased by 1.7% m/m to NZ$121mn, while core retail spending rose 2.2% m/m to NZ$137mn. Within retail, durables led gains, followed by hospitality, consumables and apparel, while fuel spending fell. Non-retail spending excluding services increased by 2.6% m/m, supported by health care and travel-related categories. Services spending was broadly flat, up 0.2% m/m. Overall electronic card spending rose 2.2% m/m to NZ$9.6bn, with 178 million transactions and an average value of NZ$54 per transaction. The release suggests steady household demand, though fuel remained a drag.

Chinese authorities and local governments are rolling out housing support measures to reduce homebuying costs and stabilize the property market. Recent actions include easing housing provident fund withdrawal and mortgage rules in Shaanxi and Guangzhou, while Huai’an has introduced a package with lower down-payment requirements, broader mortgage conversion support and continued purchase subsidies for new homes, new residents and trading in old homes for new ones. Local policy easing has remained intensive this year, with more than 470 property-related measures and over 250 provident fund policies issued nationwide. Officials and industry participants expect further optimization of provident fund policies and wider use of purchase subsidies to support market confidence, boost transaction activity and improve policy transmission. CSI 300 +2.39% to 4892, USDCNY +0.083% to 6.7571, 10y CGB -0.2bp to 1.742%

South Korea and Saudi Arabia have signed a memorandum of understanding to expand cooperation in energy resources, including crude oil and natural gas, during Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan’s visit to the kingdom. The agreement establishes a framework for long-term collaboration on supply security for key energy resources and covers crude oil stockpiling, oil pipeline infrastructure development and the use of AI and digital technologies in the energy sector. Seoul said the deal aims to strengthen resilience amid ongoing volatility in global supply chains and secure a stable supply of crude oil and naphtha. Kim also met Saudi investment and industry ministers to review South Korean firms’ projects in the country. The statement did not provide any quantitative economic data or details of volumes, prices or the timing of supply arrangements. KOSPI +5.2% to 8546, USDKRW +0.278% to 1513.2, 10y KTB -12bp to 4.195%

India’s wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose to 9.68% y/y in May from 8.26% y/y in April. Price pressures strengthened across major groups: primary articles inflation increased to 4.99% y/y from 3.78% y/y, fuel and power to 30.33% y/y from 24.89% y/y and manufactured products to 7.48% y/y from 6.68% y/y. Key inflation drivers were mineral oils (including petroleum products), crude petroleum and natural gas, chemicals and chemical products and basic metals. The WPI food index climbed to 4.49% y/y from 3.11% y/y, indicating broad-based upstream price momentum. SENSEX +1.34% to 76537, USDINR +0.407% to 94.7325, 10y INGB -1.5bp to 6.876%.

Indonesia’s external debt position remained manageable in April. Total external debt stood at $439.8bn, growing by 1.9% y/y and outpacing March’s 1.0% y/y. Public external debt rose 3.7% y/y to $216.4bn (3.8% y/y in March), supported by ongoing foreign inflows into government bonds and a continued focus on productive APBN financing. Private external debt remained in contraction, falling 0.7% y/y to $193.2bn, though the decline was smaller than March’s -1.4%, led by financial corporations. Indonesia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio was stable at 29.6%, and long-term debt dominated the structure, indicating prudent management and contained risk. JCI +5.5% to 6338, USDIDR +0.904% to 17710, 10y IDGB -2.8bp to 7.417%.

The Philippines’ cash remittances, measured in USD, rose to $2.7bn in April, highlighting continued resilience in inflows from overseas Filipinos despite challenging global economic conditions. The U.S. remained the largest source of remittances, followed by Singapore and Saudi Arabia, underscoring a stable geographic concentration of inflows. Seasonally adjusted personal remittances, which include cash transfers through banks and informal channels as well as remittances in kind, also increased in April. The data suggest that remittance inflows continue to play an important role in supporting household finances and consumption. PSEi +6.14% to 6273, USDPHP +1.321% to 60.564, 10y PHGB -45bp to 6.95%.